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Here we go again. It is that time of the year when the movies for the past year are honored for being great or snubbed and leaving so-called “experts” or film buffs, such as myself complaining to anyone who will listen, yes it must be Oscar season.

The Academy Awards are March 7, 2010. I have decided to take this opportunity to analyze the major categories. Those are Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress, and Best Supporting Actor/Actress. I will analyze who or what I feel should win, who will most likely win, and other gripes will cover my complaints and look at what I think overall.

This year is particularly special because there are ten nominations for Best Picture. Since this category is the most talked about and has the most material this is what I will preview first.

THE FILMS (all summaries courtesy of oscar.go.com)

“AVATAR” –With Earth an ecological disaster, a corporation sets its sights on the distant planet Pandora, which possesses a mineral that can be used as a valuable energy source. To overcome the resistance of the planet’s indigenous population, the Na’vi, former Marine Jake Sully is sent to infiltrate the society as a part-human, part-Na’vi avatar who can operate on Pandora while Jake himself remains in a twilight sleep.

“THE HURT LOCKER” – As the war in Iraq continues, Staff Sgt. William James carries out one of the most dangerous of all military assignments: bomb defusing. While James thrives on the job’s risks, the head of his support team, Sgt. JT Sanborn, becomes increasingly worried by what he feels is a growing recklessness in James’s behavior.

“THE BLIND SIDE”- African-American teenager Michael Oher has been in and out of the foster care system throughout his difficult childhood. When suburban mom Leigh Anne Tuohy, whose children are Michael’s schoolmates, discovers him living on the streets, he gains a home with the Tuohy family and receives the stability and encouragement he needs to develop his talents as a football player.

“DISTRICT 9”- The arrival of an enormous disabled spaceship over Johannesburg, South Africa, has led to the establishment of a refugee camp on the city’s outskirts for the ship’s starving, stranded aliens. Leading an attempt to relocate its inhabitants to a more remote location is security expert Wikus van de Merwe, whose lack of knowledge about the visitors will undergo a dramatic change when he becomes infected with an alien substance.

“AN EDUCATION”- When Jenny, a 16-year-old English schoolgirl, finds herself the object of a calculated seduction by a charming older man, she is by turns wary, flattered, and disarmed by his interest. As their relationship develops, Jenny is drawn deeper into a sophisticated world of wealth and style that may be too good to be true.

“PRECIOUS”, BASED ON THE NOVEL “PUSH” BY SAPPHIRE- Sixteen-year-old Precious Jones is overweight, nearly illiterate, and the victim of horrific physical and verbal abuse at the hands of her mother and father. Facing a seemingly hopeless future, Precious transfers to a new school, where a dedicated teacher and fellow classmates offer the unhappy young girl a chance for a new life.

“INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS” – Shosanna, a resourceful young movie theater owner fighting to stay one step ahead of the Nazis in occupied France, plots her revenge on the man responsible for her family’s death, the flamboyant Col. Hans Landa. Her plan soon draws the attention of Lt. Aldo Raine, who leads a group of Jewish soldiers known as the Basterds in a savage campaign behind enemy lines.

“A SERIOUS MAN” – In a series of escalating personal catastrophes, physics professor Larry Gopnik finds himself facing an unfaithful wife, ungrateful children, a troubled brother-in-law and poison pen letters at work. But Gopnik is a fundamentally decent man, and he tries, with increasing despair, to respond rationally and fairly to trials befitting a modern-day Job.

“UP”- Carl Fredricksen, a gruff, lonely old man, thwarts an attempt to force him out of his home by launching it into the air with hundreds of helium balloons. As he sets his sights on South America, however, Carl discovers he has an inadvertent stowaway: a Boy Scout named Russell who was trapped on his front porch.

“UP IN THE AIR”- Ryan Bingham is a corporate down sizer who spends his days in hotels, airports, and airplanes as he travels around the country laying off other companies’ workers with polished finesse. His pursuit of a life without emotional connections is called into question, however, by his interactions with two women, one a sophisticated fellow traveler and the other an inexperienced young colleague.

THE RUNDOWN OR THE OPINION OF ERICH:

WHO SHOULD WIN: In my opinion there are several good, quality choices for who should win. Those include “District 9” and “Inglourious Basterds.” I thoroughly enjoyed both of these films and both fit the mold of what best picture should be. They both were great, well done films and had no weaknesses to them. However, they will not win because the Academy goes more for flash, buzz and pop then substance as of late, so of course this eliminates those films from consideration. My personal favorite of the nominees and the film I think should win is The Coen Brothers opus “A Serious Man.” This film was amazing and it’s story was new and fresh, something that Hollywood has had trouble doing with films as of late. But it will not win because there is no way the Academy allows an unknown film to win two years in a row. So sadly…..

WHO WILL WIN: It is hard to say this but it will come down to James Cameron’s “Avatar” or “Hurt Locker.” If I had a preference I would choose “Hurt Locker” over “Avatar,” but alas I do not see this happening. “Avatar” will win, if for nothing else it generates the buzz, pop and other superlatives I used to describe above why my favorites will not win. It just saddens me that the Academy has fallen to the MTV culture of wowing special effects needed to keep veiwers attention span’s instead of a film with a predictable plot, no character development and a lack of great acting. The fact that “Avatar” is one of the favorites for Best Picture just shows how dumbed down the movie industry has become, that a film which is built on flashy special effects, big time budget and ignores classic hollywood conventions could win best picture of the year is very disturbing and saddening.

DARK HORSE WINNER: With ten movies nominated it is easy to have a dark horse candidate. My dark horse choice is “Inglourious Basterds.” Since it was directed by Quinton Tarentino, who will never win an Oscar it has an outside chance of winning and it is a slim chance at that. I did debate putting “A Serious Man” here but dark horse institutes they have a chance of winning and sadly that film has none.

GRIPES, SNUBS AND OTHER THOUGHTS:

• Three film’s I feel were major snubs are “Moon,” “The Informant!” and “Public Enemies.” I feel that these film’s were better and more deserving of nominations than film’s such as “Avatar” and “The Blind Side.” All have particular reasons why they should have been nominated, that I will not get into here, but they deserved the consideration none the less.

• I do not like having ten film’s nominated for Best Picture. While it does allow for more of a scope of film’s to be nominated, including lesser known film’s, which I do enjoy; it also allows for film’s that do not deserve to be nominated to gain an un-deserved honor.

• A few of the films nominated deal with many social issues, either directly or indirectly. From the war in Iraq, (“Hurt Locker” and “Avatar”) A group invading another groups area are un-wanted, (“District 9” and “Avatar”) to the recession (“Up In The Air”) these film’s serve as a constant reminder to viewers to the troubles awaiting them outside the theaters. While most of these film’s were exceptional, I feel it is a disturbing trend that is taking place when film’s, which are supposed to be an escape of the troubles in the world are cold hard reminders of those problems. Hopefully, film’s become more upbeat in the coming months.

Alright, there are my observations regarding best picture. Coming up is Best Actor and Best Actress predictions and observations, STAY TUNED!!!!!!!