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March Madness Preview: Final Four and National Championship game

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By Erich R Pilcher

We are a little over 24 hours from the start of March Madness. Today I will make my Final Four selections and pick my National Champion. Without further ado, let’s get started.

WEST REGION WINNER VS EAST REGION WINNER

The Match-up: I predicted that the Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Region one seed) would take on the Kentucky Wildcats (East Region two seed).

 Game Analysis: Kentucky Head Basketball Coach John Calipari has been one of the most successful coaches using the “one and done” philosophy. However this season he has experience on his side. This has led to Kentucky having the most efficient offense in the SEC. The problem has been injuries and the team not meshing well throughout the season. Those issues appear to be resolved (their semi-final loss to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament Semi-fInal non-withstanding). Oscar Tshiebwe is the driving force in their efficient offense. He gathers 40% of the Wildcat’s missed shots when he is in the game. Couple in three starters averaging over double digits, this team can spread the ball around and score. Issues have been defensive lapses and turnovers. Also if Tshiebwe is off the floor, they do not have a major interior presence. 

What can I say about the Gonzaga Bulldogs that has not already been said? The answer is not much. They have been the most consistent team throughout this roller-coaster season. They are also well-rounded they rank in the top 10 for both defensive and offensive efficiency. This coupled with two excellent shooting bigs, Chet Holmgren and Drew Timme, creates matchup nightmares for many teams in the country. These two can shoot and make it from anywhere. On the other end, they pressure teams with a frantic defense that forces bad shots. If they get on a roll they are nearly unstoppable. 

The Prediction: Unlike many college basketball pundits, I’m a John Calipari fan. I truly believe he gets the most out of his players while he has them and then moves them to the NBA. Because of this, him having an experienced team will be a benefit here. The problem I see is Tshiebwe will have to be a perimeter defender at key points because of Holmgren and Timme, that has not been a recipe for success for Kentucky. The longer the Wildcats can keep him in the paint, the better off they will be. Sadly, I do not think they can do it long enough to win this game. I look for the ‘Zags to go on a late run to put this game away and move onto the National Championship game.

I predict Gonzaga will beat Kentucky in the first Final Four match-up
Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Gonzaga:78 Kentucky: 65 

SOUTH REGION WINNER VS MIDWEST REGION WINNER

The Match-up: I predicted that the Arizona Wildcats (South Region one seed) would take on the Kansas Jayhawks (Midwest Region one seed). 

Game Analysis: The Arizona Wildcats were not a pick to be in this position when the season started. You would have been remiss to find anyone picking them to make any postseason tournament at all. Led by a first-year head coach, NCAA Infractions hanging over them. However, coach Tommy Lloyd has the Wildcats primed for a major run. They shoot the ball exceptionally well (shooting 49% from the field) and have a three-headed monster of future NBA talent Azoulas Tubelis, Christian Koloko, and Bennedict Mathurin. They also defend well ranking in the top 15 of defensive efficiency. 

The Kansas Jayhawks are just as experienced as they are talented. NBA Prospects Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun led the way for the Jayhawks. They also have a great supporting cast around them. They make 56% of their shots from the field. But they do have a fatal flaw, they only regularly play 6 guys. This and coming out of the toughest region in this year’s tournament could be a problem come Final Four time. If Remy Martin can play consistently (something that has plagued him following his transfer from Arizona State this season) that will help with the depth issue and take the focus off of Agbaji and Braun. 

The Prediction: This is going to be a battle of attrition. Neither team has a deep bench so early fouls will be something to watch out for. The team that avoids this trouble will have a major edge in the game late. I do like this Kansas squad. They have been resilient and played well against top competition. What I do not like is after Braun and Agbaji, they miss someone who can step up and take the load off of them. I think Arizona will be more well-rounded in this game and cause problems with their three talented players. This will be a nail bitter, but I take Arizona late. 

I have Arizona continuing thier improbable season, defeating Kansas and moving onto the National Title game. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Arizona: 68 Kansas: 63

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:

The Match-up: I predicted the Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Region one seed) would take on the Arizona Wildcats (South Region one seed). 

The Prediction: I’m skipping the analysis here because I feel that both of these teams have been well covered throughout this three-part preview. The key is going to be, can Arizona find a way to combat the size of Timme and Holmgren. Also, experience is monumental in this situation. Gonzaga has been here two out of the past four years. They have been knocking on this door for quite some time. I would be remiss to not add Arizona Head Coach Tommy Lloyd was hired away from Gonzaga, so he has experience in these situations. But that does not translate to team experience. I just do not see any way the ‘zags do not cut down the nets this year. All season they have been the most consistent team and have been playing towards this moment after being destroyed by Baylor in last year’s title game. Arizona will hang around but Holmgren and Timme take over in the second half and end any suspense. Gonzaga will be your 2022 National Champions. 

The Gonzaga Bulldogs will be the last team standing this year. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Gonzaga: 78 Arizona: 71

I will be live-tweeting throughout the NCAA Tournament. Feel free to follow me at Erpilcher319 or access tweets on the right-hand side of this page (tweet feed on this blog is only available on laptop or desktop viewing). Also, feel free to comment on any of these posts when my bracket goes up in flames by the end of this weekend. Finally, please enjoy the madness.

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March Madness Preview: South and Midwest Regions

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By Erich R Pilcher

Here we are with day two of the NCAA Tournament breakdown. Next, we will look at the South and Midwest regions. Then Tomorrow, I break down my Final Four picks (that will inevitably go down in flames after the first weekend). 

SOUTH REGION PREVIEW 

The South Region Bracket. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

The Top Seed: The Arizona Wildcats from the PAC 10 claimed the one seed in quite the improbable run. They are led by first-time head coach Tommy Lloyd and had the burden of NCCA infractions hanging over them from former Head Coach Sean Miller. They are led by Bennedict Mathurin and have two other NBA-ready stars in Christian Koloko and Azoulas Tubelis. They are incredibly efficient on both sides of the floor and have excelled against top competition. They hold 15 wins over Quad 1 and 2 opponents. This includes a sweep of the PAC-10 Regular Season and Conference Tournament Championships. 

Upset Special: I think in the round of 32 we see a 12 vs 13 seed match-up. I’m picking UAB to upset Houston and Chattanooga to upset Illinois. Houston plays a style that is exactly what UAB wants. And when UAB has been in the tournament, they have made some noise. Illinois, despite winning the Big Ten regular-season championship, has been disappointing this season. I feel there are better teams in the Big 10 than Illinois and just feel that Chattanooga is going to play with no fear and force the vaunted Illinois front line to defend on the perimeter and that has been trouble for the Illini. 

Possible Dark Horse: In yesterday’s post I questioned Michigan avoiding a play-in game. However, make no mistake, they are a good team. They can defend and can go on hot streaks shooting-wise. Where they have struggled is with turnovers and inexperience. This would be a good spot to show everyone they deserve to be in the tournament and being doubted can be a major motivator. 

Best Game: I like the possible Sweet Sixteen match-up between Tennessee and Villanova. There is a saying that “Styles make fights” and that applies here. Tennessee has played stellar defense throughout the season. Then we know what Villanova wants to do, they want to get out, run and shoot the lights out. This is a standard whoever imposes their will first wins. And it will be for our entertainment certainly. 

Region Winner: The Arizona Wildcats. I struggled with this. I think Tennessee could very well win this region as well. But the Wildcats have been more consistent throughout the season and I think the three stars they have are going to be too much for the Volunteers to overcome. Expect a very entertaining Elite Eight contest between the two, don’t be surprised if Tennessee guts out a win. I feel Arizona is the pick with the slightest of edges. 

My South region picks. I have Arizona winning this region. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

MIDWEST REGION PREVIEW 

The Midwest Region bracket. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

The Top Seed: The Kansas Jayhawks. Tell me if you have heard this before, Kansas sweeps the Big 12 conference regular season and tournament championships. You have because it has become normal and not the exception. Kansas Head Coach Bill Self has run one of the most consistent programs in the last 15 plus years. This year they are loaded with veteran talent and great shooting. They do tend to sag off on defense a bit and can become turnover prone. But if they are clicking they are one of the toughest teams to beat in the nation. 

Upset Special: This bracket might have the best top five teams in it (Kansas, Auburn, Wisconsin, Providence, and Iowa). All season I have felt the Auburn Tigers were a tad overrated. They do not have stellar guard play and in March that can be a fatal flaw. Enter the University of Southern California (USC). They have great play all-around at the guard position and this could be big trouble for Auburn. They can get the Tigers frontline into foul trouble, then attack the inside. I’m taking the Trojans to upset Auburn in the Round of 32. 

Possible Dark Horse: There was a time when whoever won the Big East was feared in the tournament. But after having many teams leave the conference, they have become an afterthought. However, regular-season conference champion Providence Friars are not a team anyone wants to play. They do not have any superstars or play flashy. What they do have is 5 players that average double-digit points and they find ways to win big games (they hold wins over Wisconsin, Texas Tech, and Connecticut). That is the biggest truth in March, survive and advance.

Best Game:  The possible second-round match-up between Iowa and Providence. You have two nearly identical teams. Iowa has the star power with Keegan Murray and sharpshooting from Jordan Bohannon. Where the Hawkeyes struggle is defensively and when you are playing a team like Providence that shares the ball well and anyone can score, that can hurt you. This will be a battle but Providence doing the little things well gives them the edge. 

Region Winner: The Kansas Jayhawks. I do not think they will have an issue being motivated in this region. I try to avoid going “chalk”, but this year I feel that the tournament was seeded mostly (ahem, Tennessee Volunteers as a 3 seed?) correctly. Kansas has been generally consistent this season and did not show signs of slowing down in the Big 12 conference tournament. Their veteran leadership and being battle-tested will pay dividends playing in arguably the toughest region. 

My Midwest Region picks. I have Kansas marching on to the Final Four. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Join me here tomorrow as I make my Final Four and National Champion picks.