College Football Playoff

The Eyes Have It

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By Erich R Pilcher

An American Football season is unlike any other, no matter the level at which it is competed at. It doesn’t have the plodding nature of a baseball season, and it lacks the lulls that hockey and basketball provide. It is a nine-to-twenty-game sprint (depending on level of competition, location, etc.) to desired championship glory. It is what happens during that sprint that keeps us captivated, and in college football, it has opened a firestorm of controversy and hot takes.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are currently 9-2 and are ranked ninth in the College Football Playoff rankings. Since starting the season 0-2. They have won nine consecutive games and have dominated in doing so, beating all opponents by double digits. Their ranking would give them one of the coveted 12 spots in the playoffs if the season ended today. That is where the perceived issues begin.

One of the teams Notre Dame lost to (in week one), the Miami Hurricanes, are ranked 12th. They currently have identical 9-2 records. This has led many to cry for Justice, brand bias, and other ridiculous claims. What makes them ridiculous is that they are not based in fact or even on what the eyes see.

POINT 1: YES, HEAD TO HEAD MATTERS, BUT…

Since the aforementioned loss, calling Notre Dame dominant would be an understatement. They have won 9 consecutive games by close to thirty points per game. They have done so against two ranked opponents (USC and at Pittsburgh) and two Group of 5 teams (Navy and Boise State) that could play for their conference championship. Notre Dame’s only other loss occurred to Texas A&M two weeks after the Miami loss. That loss was by one point (due to a botched hold on an extra point try and an egregious missed holding call on the game-winning touchdown). Texas A&M is undefeated and ranked fourth.

Miami is a different story. They lost at home to unranked Louisville, then on the road to unranked Southern Methodist University (SMU). Since that win, Louisville is mired in a three-game losing streak. SMU has surged, but the Louisville loss still hurts the Hurricanes in a larger way because of what they have shown as of late.

I do think head-to-head matters, but it is not empirical. Basing a decision on one game, especially one from week one, does not tell the whole story. By basing it only on that result, you are saying a team cannot improve or get worse. Two things we know to be false.

POINT 2: JUST COMPARE THEM AGAINST EACH OTHER
This seems like a logical conclusion, and it is one made in large part by Miami supporters. However, it does not help Miami’s case; as a matter of fact, it hurts it even more. In the table below (Courtesy of Bryan Driskell of Irish Breakdown), you see a better comparison is Notre Dame versus Alabama (ranked tenth). In almost every comparison, Notre Dame is better than Miami. This includes key metrics Strength of Record (SOR), Strength of Schedule (SOS), and quality wins.

IMAGE COURTESY OF BRYAN DRISKELL OF IRISH BREAKDOWN

POINT 3: WHO NEEDS THE COMMITTEE, THEY JUST GET IT WRONG ANYWAY
Before the playoff began in the 2014 season, college football used the Bowl Championship Series (BCS). This would put various rankings into the computer and average teams out. Another common crying point by Miami is that the committee does not know football. In the table below, we see that Miami would not even be in the playoffs using the BCS formula, as they wouldn’t be in the top twelve. Also of note, Notre Dame is ranked in the top twelve in all of them except one (A&H) and holds an average ranking of seventh. This would not only put Notre Dame in the playoffs, but also give them a home playoff game

FINAL POINT: STOP SCHEDULING NOTRE DAME

This is just as ridiculous as the age-old diatribe “Notre Dame should join a conference”. The only reason Miami is even in consideration for a playoff spot is that they beat Notre Dame. Without that game, they would need countless miracles to get back into consideration. Miami is currently fifth in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) standings. To even get to the conference championship game, they need to win at Pittsburgh and get a lot of help. If that win over Notre Dame was against a lesser team, they would not even be in the top 20.

As we approach the final regular-season weekend, the case for Miami is not comparing it to Notre Dame. It is what you see from them. When you watch Miami, do you see one of the 12 best teams in the country? I do not feel that is the case. They have been inconsistent, and in the games they have lost, they have given away the game through penalties and inexcusable turnovers. If Miami misses the playoffs, they have no one to blame but themselves. Not a committee and certainly not Notre Dame.

College Football Week 2 Picks

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By Erich R Pilcher

I have always felt that any major reaction to what happens in week one of college football is an overreaction. Despite this belief, there are trends and things we can see that could give insight into how the season is going to go. Last week I went 5-1, a decent way to start. This week has five more games I will be picking. But first, some week one observations.  

SEC DOMINANCE: The Southeastern Conference (SEC) went 14-1 last week (the only loss being LSU to Florida State). I will say that some of these games were very predictable and the opponents were grossly overmatched. However, there are some impressive wins out there. Arkansas held off a very game Cincinnati squad that qualified for the College Football Playoff (CFP). In Gainsville, the Florida Gators beat defending PAC-12 Champions, the then seventh-ranked Utah Utes, and finally defending national champions Georgia Bulldogs drubbed the Oregon Ducks 49-3, which leads to point number two 

A TIDE VS BULLDOG INEVITABILITY? Georgia played like a team with something to prove, giving quite the rude welcome to Former Defensive Coordinator Dan Lanning in his first game as the Head Coach at Oregon. This game had many looking at a possible upset and doubting the 16.5 point-line. Once again, Georgia and Alabama do not play each other in the regular season and seem to be destined for an SEC championship game showdown. I do not know if it is inevitable that both teams make the CFP. But I do think Georgia is certainly the best team in the country right now.  

PAC-12 DEEP SIXED: This past weekend both Oregon and Utah lost. This has many once again declaring the PAC-12 will be left out of the CFP. That is an unfair conclusion. USC could very well run the table and if they do that, they most assuredly would get in. The problem is they play Utah and Oregon. Both teams are more complete than USC and that is a tough hill for any team to climb let alone an unproven one. It looks like another year where the PAC-12 will cannibalize themselves out of the playoff. 

 

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas Longhorns 

NOON EST  

Fox National Broadcast 

Is Texas back? Getting Redshirt Freshman transfer Quarterback Quinn Ewers from Ohio State to couple with powerhouse Running Back Bijan Robinson is a good start. Last week Texas throttled the overmatched University of Louisiana Monroe. Now the competition goes up in the form of college football measuring stick Alabama.  

The Crimson Tide lost their usual number of players to the pros this offseason. However, Heisman Trophy winner, Quarterback Bryce Young and Defensive Lineman Tim Smith, and their coach is some guy named Nick Saban. They routed Utah State in a typical Tide-dominating fashion and appear to be ready for a run at the championship.   

Two things are working in the Longhorns’ favor. First, the game is being played in Texas and the game is set for a noon kickoff when it will be a balmy 86 degrees. One way to slow down a high-powered offense like Alabama’s is the heat. The bigger question is can Ewers, in only his second start, slay the beast that is Alabama? Nick Saban (much like his mentor Bill Belichick) loves to take away the main thing teams want to do. Texas will want Robinson to get going Early to take pressure off of Ewers in his first big game situation. I think it works for a half, but the Tide do what they do and roll late  

PREDICTION ALABAMA: 45 TEXAS 24 

  #24 Tennessee Volunteers vs #17 Pittsburgh Panthers  

3:30 PM EST 

ABC National Broadcast  

Last week Pittsburgh showed some real moxie in knocking off rival West Virginia in the return of the “Backyard Brawl”. Despite the victory, the Panthers allowed big plays and 31 points. Enter the Volunteers, who last week racked up 569 yards of total offense against Bowling Green to start Head Coach Josh Heupel’s second season. The offense loves to play fast and rack up yards quickly. 

The Vols are led by Quarterback Hendon Hooker. He can scramble and has improved his throwing. His main target is all SEC Wide receivers, Cedric Tillman. To spell those two is a two-headed monster at running back in Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small. Their downfall is an offensive line that gave up 44 sacks a year ago and Pitt loves to get after the QB.  

Pitt lost Quarterback Kenny Pickett from last year’s Conference Championship team. This has led to a more conservative approach offensively led by USC transfer Kedon Slovis, who threw for over 300 yards in his first game. That is good because they only averaged 2 yards per carry and will need to be more balanced in this game to keep the Vols off the field.  

This game will be tight. But I think in tight games, you have to go all out offensively. That gives the edge to the Vols. They score late for the mild upset  

PREDICTION TENNESSEE 38 PITTSBURGH 34 

 #20 Kentucky Wildcats vs #12 Florida Gators  

7:00 PM EST 

ESPN 

Is Florida back? Last week the Gators took a big step towards that reality by upsetting the seventh-ranked Utah Utes. They get a second consecutive big-time matchup at home when conference rival Kentucky visits.  

Florida has had a revolving door of head coaches as of late and appears to have found some stability with first-year coach Billy Napier. Anthony Richardson is a dual-threat quarterback that made big plays in last week’s upset. The Gators rushed for 268 yards and it appears they will rely on the run to carry them. 

The Wildcats play likewise. Although, they will be without star Running Back Chris Rodriguez Jr due to disciplinary reasons. This means more will be asked of Quarterback Will Levis (a Darkhorse Heisman candidate) who threw for 303 yards last week and three scores.  

One could argue that Utah still should have won last week’s game. Mistakes did them in and Florida capitalized. The question is, can the Gators be ready emotionally after the big win last week? Florida cannot rely on Levis to make the same mistake Utah Quarterback Cam Rising made last week. However, I think the Swamp will be rocking and the rejuvenated fan base will be enough to get the Gators to 2-0.  

PREDICTION KENTUCKY 40 FLORIDA 41 

UPSET SPECIAL   

#9 Baylor Bears vs #21 BYU Cougars 

9:15 PM EST 

ESPN 

These two future Big 12 rivals square off in Provo tomorrow night in a titanic top 25 showdown. Both teams are thought to be possible CFP part crashers and a win in this game would go a long way in helping their cause.  

Baylor has sped to burn with Receivers Monaray Baldwin and Ben Sims. Blake Shapen returns as the signal caller for the Bears. They do replace their top three rushers from last season. Baylor is young across the board offensively and BYU thrives at forcing mistakes. 

Offensively the Cougars are no slouch, but they are a defensive team. In last season’s matchup in Waco, the Cougars were hit with depth issues that allowed Baylor to take control late. They are healthy this season. Couple that with the game being played in Provo, with a fan base dying for a top 10 win, and this has upset written all over it. So let it be written, so let it be done.  

PREDICTION BAYLOR 21 BYU 27 

LOCAL FLAVOR
BATTLE FOR THE CY HAWK TROPHY  

Iowa State Cyclones vs Iowa Hawkeyes

3:00 PM EST 

Big Ten Network 

Last week the Iowa Hawkeyes defeated the South Dakota State Jackrabbits 7-3. They defeated the FCS power despite not scoring an offensive touchdown (their seven points were accomplished by a field goal and two safeties). Against any other opponent, their offensive ineptness would have led to almost certain defeat. The only thing that saved them, was a monumental defensive effort, herculean punting effort, and the Jackrabbits’ offensive ineptness. 

Now, here comes in-state rival Iowa State. Gone are offensive cornerstones Running Back Breece Hall and Quarterback Brock Purdy. Replacing them are Quarterback Hunter Dekkers and Wide Receiver Xavier Hutchinson (the duo connected for three touchdowns last week). The Cyclones have lost six straight in this series, but the Hawkeyes seem ripe for a loss here. 

Appearances can be deceiving. During Kirk Ferentz’s tenure, there have been times when the Hawkeyes have been written off and won a game, dispelling all worries. Dekkers is the prime concern for me. This is his first road start (in a VERY hostile environment), it’s a rivalry game and he is playing a phenomenal defense that will force him into mistakes. 

I’m going with the Hawkeyes to win this game and make it seven straight. So fire up the swarm, warm up the wave, and “Fight, fight, fight for Iowa”. The Cy-Hawk stays in Iowa City. 

PREDICITON IOWA STATE 12 IOWA 27

CURRENT RECCORD: 5-1