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March Madness: Final Four and National Championship Game Previews and Predicitions

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Here we are. The final weekend of the College Basketball season. Hard to believe that just two weeks ago 68 teams were vying to be the National Champion and now we are down to 4. There have been upsets, history made (a fifteen seed made the Elite Eight) and at the end of it all we have four historically great teams and one monumental, never before happened showdown.

FINAL FOUR PREVIEW

GAME 1: (1MW) KANSAS JAYHAWKS VS (2S) VILLANOVA WILDCATS 

TIP-OFF 6:09 PM EST 

Kansas Ochai Agbaji and Villanova’s Collin Gellespie leas thier teams against each other in the first game of the Final Four. Photo Courtesy: Sporting News

When this tournament first started, I had Kansas as one of my Final Four teams (my other three Gonzaga, Arizona, and Kentucky are all gone). This season there have been questions about Kansas’ toughness and consistency. Safe to say, those questions have been answered. They had a battle with undermanned Creighton in the second round, another struggle against Providence and then a dominant second half against Miami turned a deficit into a 26 point blowout. Kansas has leaned on its stars Ochai Agbaji, David McCormick, and Christian Braun. Arizona State transfer Remy Martin has meshed with the offense at the right time. Kansas is starting to look like the team that many had pegged to win it all. 

Villanova has flown under the radar for most of the season. They won the Big East Tournament behind the shooting of Senior Guard Collin Gillespie. The Wildcats have had to be gritty all season long. They only go 6-7 players deep and have lost second-leading scorer Justin Moore to a torn Achilles. On the surface, they should be in trouble. But head coach Jay Wright has been here before and knows how to the most out of his team in these situations.

What I see happening in this game is, Villanova cannot get into a track meet. They have to make this game slow and keep it a half-court game. Kansas is a strong defensive team (especially in this tournament). Gillespie must have a big game and the Wildcats have to find a way to get Kansas into foul trouble to even up the depth issue they will face. To combat this, Martin needs to be the star he is morphing into in this tourney. This takes the pressure off the other three stars and will allow them to operate freely. If this happens, Villanova will be in for a long night. 

I have a hard time picking against Wright. But, Kansas is playing so well right now and they seem destined to play Monday night. The loss of Moore is going to be monumental here and as good as Gillespie is, Kansas is more complete. I got the Jayhawks moving onto Monday night. 

PREDICTION: KANSAS JAYHAWKS 71 VILLANOVA WILDCATS 55

GAME 2: (2W) DUKE BLUE DEVILS VS (8E) NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS 

APPROX TIP OFF 7:49 PM (30 MINUTES FOLLOWING FIRST GAME)

Wendel Moore Jr of Duke drives against Leaky Black of North Carolina
Phot Courtesy: Getty Images

In history, there have been many rivalries and feuds. In college sports, it does not get any better than Duke and North Carolina. These two teams have had monumental battles throughout the ACC and Duke Head Coach Mike Krzyzewski has no bigger rival than the Tar Heels. This is just purely poetic to have him face off with them in the Final Four in his final season. Add in the fact these two storied rivals have never faced in the NCAA Tournament and this is going to be a massively historic matchup. 

Duke has handled this being their legendary head coach’s final year throughout this season. At his point, it is safe to say they are used to it. Of greater concern is the fact that Carolina dominated Duke in Durham in the last game of the regular season for Coach K and his last home game. The Tar Heels did this using a frantic defense that kept Duke out of rhythm all night, especially Stars Paolo Banchero and Wendell Moore Jr. 

North Carolina is spearheaded by a three-pronged attack led by Armando Bacot, Leaky Black, and Brady Manex. During this tourney, the Tar Heels have played exception defense while shooting lights out. They have frustrated opponents by getting out to leads early and using their pace to take teams out of their game. 

Duke, much like Kansas, is showing their preseason promise. Banchero, Moore, and Mark Williams have been dominant this tournament and have shown that they are worthy of all the NBA hype they have received. Add in the rise of Trevor Keels and the timely hot hand of Jeremy Roach and the Blue Devils are a load to defend. If you zone them, they find the soft spots in the zone and get to the line. If you play man, their length is a mismatch because all five players can shoot from anywhere, and that threat allows them to drive the lane with impunity. 

The key is going to be, can North Carolina replicate their performance from Cameron? If they can disrupt Duke early and shake their confidence they can then rely on their three-headed monster to get out, run and force Duke to chase them around. If they cannot do this, Duke will be able to move the ball around and pick their shots. That will then allow them to set their defense and play their game at a moderate pace and wear down their rival. 

This game means everything in this rivalry. If UNC wins, they can say they ended Coach K’s career. If Duke wins they are one step closer to giving their coach a championship ending to his career. This will be ugly early with both teams feeling each other out. However, I think Duke will be too much and their newly found championship resolve will shine through. Banchero hits a late shot and the Blue Devils salt it away at the line. 

PREDICTION: DUKE BLUE DEVILS 68 NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS 63

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: KANSAS JAYHAWKS VS DUKE BLUE DEVILS 

In 1992 when Duke won their first National Tittle they beat the Kansas Jayhawks. It was the first of 5 for Coach K and was the beginning of his ascent to greatness. 

These two teams are nearly identical. They both have star power, they both are playing phenomenally at the right time and both were preseason picks to be here (depending on who you listened to or what you read). 

The key to the game will be one thing. Fouls and mistakes. These two teams are reasonably deep, so whoever can get the other into foul trouble first will have a major advantage. Kansas does have issues of cold shooting and turning the ball over. Against Miami in the Elite Eight, Kansas had an eight-point deficit at the half. This was due to bad shot selection and turnovers. They were able to overcome this and win by 26 points. Against Duke, they won’t be able to turn the tide like that. I also feel that Duke’s starting five will be able to keep Kansas off the offensive glass and limit them to one-shot opportunities. Their size will also disrupt the offensive flow of Kansas and force them into mistakes. 

Finally, it will just be poetic for the greatest coach ever to win a championship in his final game against the team he beat for his first national title. Duke wins their sixth title in an explosive, nail-biting fashion. 

Coach Mike Krzyzewski cutting the nets down in 1991 after defeating the Kansas Jayhawks for his first national championship. History repeats itself for his final championship. Photo Courtesy: CBS Sports

PREDICTION: DUKE BLUE DEVILS 83 KANSAS JAYHAWKS 79

I hope everyone enjoys the conclusion to what has been an excellent college basketball season.  

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March Madness: Rounds one and two recap. Sweet Sixteen preview.

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By Erich R Pilcher

My picks. Red equals wrong, sadly for me. Grahpic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

We are one weekend into the tournament and I have good news and bad news. The good, I still have three of my Final Four teams left. The bad news is my bracket is a battlefield of red. I’m sitting in ninth place out of fifteen in my bracket contest. So, I return a broken and defeated man to give some analysis and predictions that will, no doubt, blow up in my face.

ANALYSIS OF ROUNDS ONE AND TWO

Saint Peters Peacocks after upsetting college basketball blue bloods Kentucky in the first round.
Photo Courtesy: Getty Images

The East Region: If there was ever anything that led to the chaos of this tournament it is this region. Gone are seeds one (Baylor) and two (Kentucky, to upset darlings Saint Peter’s). I picked Kentucky to win this region and they are gone. This region is wide open. North Carolina looked impressive, UCLA appears to have found their mojo from last season at around this time, and Purdue, with the most explosive player in the country Jaden Ivey. This region is up for grabs and will be the most entertaining this week. 

Kansas Jayhawks guard Remy Martin celebrates fater a big play against the Creighton BlueJays
Photo Courtesy: Google Images

Toughness and resolve: These two words are required to win this tournament and two college basketball blue-bloods, showed they have it in their second-round contests. The Kansas Jayhawks were in a battle with the Creighton BlueJays. Creighton was vastly undermanned and it looked like another disappointing end for Kansas. But through Remy Martin and David McCormick, they found that toughness needed to thwart Creighton and move on. 

For the Duke Blue Devils, they were playing for more than to advance. They were playing to keep the career of their legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski going (he is retiring when this season ends). Michigan State showed they were up to the task of battling the very talented Blue Devils matching them blow for blow throughout the game. I called Duke immature in my preview and felt they were too inconsistent. But they, like Kansas, showed they are ready for March and can officially be called a threat to cut down the nets. 

Big Ten shows up small: When the Big Ten had nine of the 12 teams make the field, people thought that they would be assured of one or two teams making a run to the Final Four. After the first two rounds, only two teams remain (Michigan and Purdue). I have always believed that conferences that get a majority of their teams into the dance are ripe to be picked off early. That is because they are in a dogfight every game of their conference season. Then they have the conference tourney and finally make it to the NCAA tournament where they could be up against a team that has had an easier go of it, more reset, and have had more time to prepare. That is what has happened here. The Big Ten might have been the best conference this season, but that does not translate to success in March. 

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE SWEET SIXTEEN AND POSSIBLE ELITE EIGHT MATCHUPS

Best Game: Duke Blue Devils against Texas Tech Red Raiders is going to be a contrast of differences. Texas Tech relies on a lockdown defense and Duke relies on scoring and hot shooting to win games. Can Duke use the resolve and experience gained from the Michigan State game to take out one of the top defenses in the country? A better question is can Texas Tech win a shootout against the Blue Devils and handle the depth they present? I feel talent will win out here and give Duke the edge. However, this Wis going to be the most entertaining game of the Sweet Sixteen.

North Carolina’s Armando Bacot drives the lane against the Baylor Bears in the Tar Heels upset victory in the scond round of the NCAA Tournament. Photo Courtesy: Getty Images

Upset Special:  I have been very impressed with North Carolina so far in this tournament. I know they blew a twenty-five-point lead to Baylor (worst Flagrant 2 foul call I have ever seen) but they did end up winning and seem to be meshing at the right time. UCLA is a tough match-up but I look at Armando Bacot and Leaky Black to push the tempo and do just enough defensively to propel the Tar Heels into the Elite Eight. 

THURSDAY SWEET SIXTEEN GAMES (picks are in bold):

(1W)Gonzaga Bulldogs vs (4W) Arkansas Razorbacks 6:09 PM CST

(11S)Michigan Wolverines vs (2S)Villanova Wildcats 6:29 PM CST 

(3W) Texas Tech vs (2W) Duke Blue Devils 8:39 PM CST

(5S) Houston Cougars vs (1S) Arizona Wildcats 8:59 PM CST

FRIDAY SWEET SIXTEEN GAMES (picks are in bold):

(15E)Saint Peters vs (3E) Purdue Boilermakers 6:09 PM CST

(1MW) Kansas Jayhawks vs (4MW) Providence Friars 6:29 PM CST 

(8E) North Carolina vs (4E) UCLA 8:39 PM CST

(11MW) Iowa State vs (10MW) Miami Hurricanes 8:59 PM CST 

I hope everyone enjoys the games this week. I will be back next Monday with my Final Four preview.

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March Madness Preview: West and East Regions

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By Erich R Pilcher

The madness has arrived. As we count down until Thursday at noon eastern when the first game tips off (play-in games on Tuesday and Wednesday non-withstanding) there will be analysis upon analysis and predictions galore. So, if you will indulge me, I will throw my hat into the ring.

Today I will be taking a look at the East and West regions with predictions and regional winners. However, first I will give my opinions on the bracket. 

If these are the numbers the NCAA Selection Comitteee basis thier chocies on, they must explain leaving Texas A & M out of the Big Dance. Graphic Courtesy of Bracketologists.com

Left Out: I thought Texas A&M did enough to play their way into the tournament. And the numbers would agree with that. When you look at their NET rating it is better than Notre Dame, Wyoming, and Rutgers. Their Strength of Schedule (SOS) is better than Wyoming and Notre Dame. The only argument against them would be their Quad One record (4-10, but identical to Notre Dame percentage-wise). However, their overall profile and the way they played in the SEC tournament would dictate they should have gone dancing.

Michigan Head Basketball Coach Juwan Howard led Michigan back to the tournament despite playing the seventh toughest schedule in the country, a 17-14 record and a late season suspension for striking an opposing coach. Photo Courtesy: Michigan Live

Seeding Gripe: Two teams were miss seeded in opposite directions. Michigan, was seeded as an 11 seed and missed a play in-game. In their last game, they blew a 17 point lead against Indiana (selected to a play in-game) and have been inconsistent throughout the season. Their resume was their saving grace. They have the seventh toughest schedule in the country and went 8-13 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. I feel their record (17-14) and the way the season finished should have put them in the play-in situation. 

On the flip side Southeastern Conference (SEC) Tournament champion Tennessee Volunteers should have bumped Kentucky from the two-line. They are a three-seed but went 4-1 against Auburn (regular-season conference champion) and Kentucky (who they beat in the Conference Tournament semifinals) that alone should have allowed them to overtake one of them for a two seed. 

Will Wade was fired by LSU the day before Selection Sunday after major NCAA violations were alleged.
Photo Courtesy: Atlanata Journal Democrat

Why are they in: Louisiana State University (LSU) fired Head Coach Will Wade on Saturday after the school was notified by the NCAA of mass improprieties alleged against him and his staff. They were selected to take part in the tournament. No doubt the student-athletes worked hard to get here and from what we know, none of the current players were involved in wrongdoing. But why have them take part in a tournament when the appearance will more than likely, just be vacated once the NCAA concludes their investigation? That is an answer that has not been given and sadly these players will feel the hurt of their accomplishments being wiped away, albeit delayed. 

WEST REGION PREVIEW 

The West Bracket. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

The Top Seed: The Gonzaga Bulldogs suffered no hangover from their destruction at the hand of Baylor in the National Title game last season. Behind Freshman Chet Holmgren and veteran Andrew Timme the Bulldogs appear to be more complete than they were last season. They were dependent on strong guard play last season this year they can shoot from anywhere on the court and defend. There is no mistake with them being the overall top seed. 

Upset Special: Cal State Fullerton over the Duke Blue Devils. This Duke team (In Mike Krzyzewski’s final season) is one of the most talented in the nation. They have 4 probable NBA first-round picks led by Paolo Banchero. However, talent doesn’t always win out in March. This Duke team is inexperienced and has shown major immaturities. These parallels remind me of the Duke teams that lost to Lehigh and Mercer. I feel the same happens here. Duke loses in the first round.

Possible Dark Horse: Texas Tech did not miss a beat when Head Coach Chris Bard departed for rival Texas. They can defend and shoot. The issue is can they shoot it consistently to match up with an offensive powerhouse. The defense will get them to the Elite Eight. But, there is Gonzaga and that inconsistent shooting is hard to overcome against them. But they can play against anyone. 

Best Game: The probable Elite Eight match-up between Texas Tech and Gonzaga will be the best in this region. You have two teams that can score and play defense. It will be a war of attrition and entertainment. Despite Texas Tech being really good they are not exceptional. So that leads to…

Region Winner: The Gonzaga Bulldogs have been the most consistent top team in the country this season. Honestly, I do not see a team that if they are playing to their potential and talent that can match up with them in this region. They might have a close call or two (Texas Tech comes to mind) but in the end, they will be on their way to the Final Four. 

The West Region as I see it. Gonzaga will be headed to the Final Four. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

EAST REGION PREVIEW 

The East Region Bracket: Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

The Top Seed: The Baylor Bears are the defending National Champions. Throughout this season they have shown the heart of a champion. They have overcome injuries and lost players from last year’s squad. They certainly look the part behind Flow Thamba and others. They are not as deep as they were last year. However, to discount them would be a mistake

Upset Special: Virginia Tech over Texas. The Hokies started championship week on the outside looking in on the NCAA tournament. All they did was win four games in four days. And beat the top three teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament on their way to an improbable conference tournament championship. For their troubles, they were awarded an 11 seed and a match-up against Texas. They are playing so well and have momentum on their side. This continues with the upset here 

Possible Dark Horse: Saint Mary’s dominated Gonzaga in a late-season match-up. Despite Gonzaga beating them in the conference tournament final, they are a great team. They defend well and work hard on every possession. Teams will need to give their best effort to beat the Gales. Do not be shocked if they find their way to the regional final. 

Best Game:  The possible sweet sixteen match-up between Kentucky and Purdue will be an offensive slugfest. Jaden Ivey from Purdue can score from anywhere on the court and might be the most explosive player in the country. He can close down on the basket very quickly and is a big body that can finish strong. Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe will be waiting for him. This man is a double-double machine and leads the country in rebounds averaging about 15 per game. Kentucky has had spells of not shooting well and Purdue is not the defensive team they have been. This match-up is great because it is dependent on who overcomes their weaknesses more. 

Region Winner: The Kentucky Wildcats. Being the two seed Kentucky is gifted with not having to see a thin Baylor Bears team until the Elite Eight. when they could be quite worn down (if they make it that far, see my picks below). Coach John Calipari has this team playing well at the right time and is in the weakest bracket. This bodes well for the Wildcats to march onto the Final Four. 

My East Region Picks. I have Kentucky winning this region. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Join me here tomorrow as I look at the South and Midwest regions.

What is Greatness Without K?

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By: Erich R Pilcher

Goat in American English: (goʊt) NOUN

1. Word forms: plural goats or goat

a. any of a genus (Capra) of wild or domesticated bovid ruminants with hollow horns

b. US Rocky Mountain goat

2. a lecherous man

3. US, Informal a person forced to take the blame or punishment for others; scapegoat

That is the technical definition of Goat. Sadly the acronym for Greatest of All Time (G.O.A.T) is not listed. The world of sports who is the greatest is often debated. Michael Jordan, Babe Ruth, Pele, Wayne Gretzky are usually at the forefront of this debate. However, coaching is one aspect that is not as definitive.

I’m here to say the debate is over. There is a clear-cut and definitive choice. It is Duke University Men’s Basketball Coach Mike Krzyzewski, and the debate is not even close. 

Mike Krzyzewski at his introductory press conference in March 1980.
Image: Google Images

Krzyzewski took over the head coaching job at Duke in 1980 following a five-year stint as the head coach for Army (Where he went 73-59 with one National Invitational Tournament berth). Since then, Duke has been the preeminent program in college basketball. Duke has made the NCAA Tournament 37 out of 40 years (They missed in 2021 due to COVID and will make the tournament this season), he holds the record for both most wins and most tournament wins (1,195 wins overall and 97 in the tournament), he has an astounding 12 Regular season and 15 conference tournament titles in arguably the toughest basketball conference, the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC).

Coach K cutting the nets following his first national title in 1991.
He has since won four more across three different decades.
Image: Google Images

Finally, he has won a national title in three different decades and five overall (1991, 1992, 2001, 2010, and 2015), led his team to 12 Final Four and he rejuvenated United States basketball on the global stage, leading the team to three consecutive gold medals in 2008, 2012 and 2016 (following the unmitigated disaster and near-catastrophic showing in the 2004 Summer Games). 

Coach K with the United States Men’s Basketball team following winning the Gold Medal at the 2008 Summer Games.
This team was dubbed the “redeem team” after the disaster that was the 2004 team.
Coach K would lead the team to two more gold medals in 2012 and 2016
Courtesy: Google Images

Those stats alone would justify his lofty standing. Then we ignore the intangibles. This is where he truly shows his greatness. He has done most of this from a private university in Durham, North Carolina. A school was known as the “Ivy League of the South”. He has outlasted his rivals. When he started he had to combat Dean Smith and Bobby Knight (who he eventually passed in most measurable categories) throughout his career he has had wars with Rick Pitino, Roy Williams, Jim Calhoun, Jim Boeheim, Tom Izzo, and many more. Not only has he thwarted them, but he has also lapped them. Krzyzewski has also done so by running a clean program, with no major infractions or controversies. Something not many of his foes can say. 

In this debate, people will throw out other names such as Green Bay Packers coach Vince Lombardi, New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick, former Iowa Wrestling coach Dan Gable, or pro basketball coach Phil Jackson. In regards to the professional coaches, they often have a say in what players they get and ultimately how long they stay. Krzyzewski does not. 

Early in his career, Krzyzewski would only get kids that would stay for four years and graduate. Once “one and done” became common, many thought Duke would be finished. Not only has Krzyzewski evolved, but he also succeeded. He embraced the one-and-done and has modified his program’s approach to getting kids ready for the pros. His offense and defense are less basic and more fluid. It is based on the players he has not the scheme he wants. 

His control is limited to his recruiting pitch. After that the decision is the kids, how long they stay, and if they venture to Durham. Pro coaches can offer, or get management to offer, long-term deals, re-negotiate contacts and get more money. This is a luxury not afforded to Coach K and he has won despite it.

Then, some will point to the championships won by Lombardi and Gable. To that point, competition has to be debated. Lombardi won most of his championships in an eight-team league and to be fair it was a glorified YMCA dad league. Gable also had limited competition and Iowa is a wrestling-rich state. So not only did he have limited competition, he had his pick of the top-tier talent. 

Most impressive is the fact that Coach K was able to get NBA players to believe in him as he led them for 12 years across three Olympic Games. When he was first hired, many felt that he could not do this. There were egos, such as Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and others. The thought was his approach would not be accepted by NBA players. But not only did he get them to buy in, the players often shower adulation and praise on the legend. Something that shows he transcends levels and can get anyone to believe in him and his approach. 

Anyone is welcome to debate me on this. But the stats and intangibles do not lie. What Krzyzewski has done is something we have never seen before and will never see again. Nearly 40 years of consistent dominance from a small campus, shrouded in Gothic decor and high academic standards. He succeeded despite a constantly changing environment. 

Coach K arguing with an official at his last game in Chapel Hill against rival North Carolina earlier this season
Courtesy: Google Images

This Saturday night “The Man” coaches his final game, in front of his people, The Cameron Crazies. A fan base he cultivated by his success. I would advise any sports fan to watch and see because it is something we will never see again.