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March Madness Preview: Final Four and National Championship game

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By Erich R Pilcher

We are a little over 24 hours from the start of March Madness. Today I will make my Final Four selections and pick my National Champion. Without further ado, let’s get started.

WEST REGION WINNER VS EAST REGION WINNER

The Match-up: I predicted that the Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Region one seed) would take on the Kentucky Wildcats (East Region two seed).

 Game Analysis: Kentucky Head Basketball Coach John Calipari has been one of the most successful coaches using the “one and done” philosophy. However this season he has experience on his side. This has led to Kentucky having the most efficient offense in the SEC. The problem has been injuries and the team not meshing well throughout the season. Those issues appear to be resolved (their semi-final loss to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament Semi-fInal non-withstanding). Oscar Tshiebwe is the driving force in their efficient offense. He gathers 40% of the Wildcat’s missed shots when he is in the game. Couple in three starters averaging over double digits, this team can spread the ball around and score. Issues have been defensive lapses and turnovers. Also if Tshiebwe is off the floor, they do not have a major interior presence. 

What can I say about the Gonzaga Bulldogs that has not already been said? The answer is not much. They have been the most consistent team throughout this roller-coaster season. They are also well-rounded they rank in the top 10 for both defensive and offensive efficiency. This coupled with two excellent shooting bigs, Chet Holmgren and Drew Timme, creates matchup nightmares for many teams in the country. These two can shoot and make it from anywhere. On the other end, they pressure teams with a frantic defense that forces bad shots. If they get on a roll they are nearly unstoppable. 

The Prediction: Unlike many college basketball pundits, I’m a John Calipari fan. I truly believe he gets the most out of his players while he has them and then moves them to the NBA. Because of this, him having an experienced team will be a benefit here. The problem I see is Tshiebwe will have to be a perimeter defender at key points because of Holmgren and Timme, that has not been a recipe for success for Kentucky. The longer the Wildcats can keep him in the paint, the better off they will be. Sadly, I do not think they can do it long enough to win this game. I look for the ‘Zags to go on a late run to put this game away and move onto the National Championship game.

I predict Gonzaga will beat Kentucky in the first Final Four match-up
Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Gonzaga:78 Kentucky: 65 

SOUTH REGION WINNER VS MIDWEST REGION WINNER

The Match-up: I predicted that the Arizona Wildcats (South Region one seed) would take on the Kansas Jayhawks (Midwest Region one seed). 

Game Analysis: The Arizona Wildcats were not a pick to be in this position when the season started. You would have been remiss to find anyone picking them to make any postseason tournament at all. Led by a first-year head coach, NCAA Infractions hanging over them. However, coach Tommy Lloyd has the Wildcats primed for a major run. They shoot the ball exceptionally well (shooting 49% from the field) and have a three-headed monster of future NBA talent Azoulas Tubelis, Christian Koloko, and Bennedict Mathurin. They also defend well ranking in the top 15 of defensive efficiency. 

The Kansas Jayhawks are just as experienced as they are talented. NBA Prospects Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun led the way for the Jayhawks. They also have a great supporting cast around them. They make 56% of their shots from the field. But they do have a fatal flaw, they only regularly play 6 guys. This and coming out of the toughest region in this year’s tournament could be a problem come Final Four time. If Remy Martin can play consistently (something that has plagued him following his transfer from Arizona State this season) that will help with the depth issue and take the focus off of Agbaji and Braun. 

The Prediction: This is going to be a battle of attrition. Neither team has a deep bench so early fouls will be something to watch out for. The team that avoids this trouble will have a major edge in the game late. I do like this Kansas squad. They have been resilient and played well against top competition. What I do not like is after Braun and Agbaji, they miss someone who can step up and take the load off of them. I think Arizona will be more well-rounded in this game and cause problems with their three talented players. This will be a nail bitter, but I take Arizona late. 

I have Arizona continuing thier improbable season, defeating Kansas and moving onto the National Title game. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Arizona: 68 Kansas: 63

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:

The Match-up: I predicted the Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Region one seed) would take on the Arizona Wildcats (South Region one seed). 

The Prediction: I’m skipping the analysis here because I feel that both of these teams have been well covered throughout this three-part preview. The key is going to be, can Arizona find a way to combat the size of Timme and Holmgren. Also, experience is monumental in this situation. Gonzaga has been here two out of the past four years. They have been knocking on this door for quite some time. I would be remiss to not add Arizona Head Coach Tommy Lloyd was hired away from Gonzaga, so he has experience in these situations. But that does not translate to team experience. I just do not see any way the ‘zags do not cut down the nets this year. All season they have been the most consistent team and have been playing towards this moment after being destroyed by Baylor in last year’s title game. Arizona will hang around but Holmgren and Timme take over in the second half and end any suspense. Gonzaga will be your 2022 National Champions. 

The Gonzaga Bulldogs will be the last team standing this year. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Gonzaga: 78 Arizona: 71

I will be live-tweeting throughout the NCAA Tournament. Feel free to follow me at Erpilcher319 or access tweets on the right-hand side of this page (tweet feed on this blog is only available on laptop or desktop viewing). Also, feel free to comment on any of these posts when my bracket goes up in flames by the end of this weekend. Finally, please enjoy the madness.

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March Madness Preview: West and East Regions

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By Erich R Pilcher

The madness has arrived. As we count down until Thursday at noon eastern when the first game tips off (play-in games on Tuesday and Wednesday non-withstanding) there will be analysis upon analysis and predictions galore. So, if you will indulge me, I will throw my hat into the ring.

Today I will be taking a look at the East and West regions with predictions and regional winners. However, first I will give my opinions on the bracket. 

If these are the numbers the NCAA Selection Comitteee basis thier chocies on, they must explain leaving Texas A & M out of the Big Dance. Graphic Courtesy of Bracketologists.com

Left Out: I thought Texas A&M did enough to play their way into the tournament. And the numbers would agree with that. When you look at their NET rating it is better than Notre Dame, Wyoming, and Rutgers. Their Strength of Schedule (SOS) is better than Wyoming and Notre Dame. The only argument against them would be their Quad One record (4-10, but identical to Notre Dame percentage-wise). However, their overall profile and the way they played in the SEC tournament would dictate they should have gone dancing.

Michigan Head Basketball Coach Juwan Howard led Michigan back to the tournament despite playing the seventh toughest schedule in the country, a 17-14 record and a late season suspension for striking an opposing coach. Photo Courtesy: Michigan Live

Seeding Gripe: Two teams were miss seeded in opposite directions. Michigan, was seeded as an 11 seed and missed a play in-game. In their last game, they blew a 17 point lead against Indiana (selected to a play in-game) and have been inconsistent throughout the season. Their resume was their saving grace. They have the seventh toughest schedule in the country and went 8-13 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. I feel their record (17-14) and the way the season finished should have put them in the play-in situation. 

On the flip side Southeastern Conference (SEC) Tournament champion Tennessee Volunteers should have bumped Kentucky from the two-line. They are a three-seed but went 4-1 against Auburn (regular-season conference champion) and Kentucky (who they beat in the Conference Tournament semifinals) that alone should have allowed them to overtake one of them for a two seed. 

Will Wade was fired by LSU the day before Selection Sunday after major NCAA violations were alleged.
Photo Courtesy: Atlanata Journal Democrat

Why are they in: Louisiana State University (LSU) fired Head Coach Will Wade on Saturday after the school was notified by the NCAA of mass improprieties alleged against him and his staff. They were selected to take part in the tournament. No doubt the student-athletes worked hard to get here and from what we know, none of the current players were involved in wrongdoing. But why have them take part in a tournament when the appearance will more than likely, just be vacated once the NCAA concludes their investigation? That is an answer that has not been given and sadly these players will feel the hurt of their accomplishments being wiped away, albeit delayed. 

WEST REGION PREVIEW 

The West Bracket. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

The Top Seed: The Gonzaga Bulldogs suffered no hangover from their destruction at the hand of Baylor in the National Title game last season. Behind Freshman Chet Holmgren and veteran Andrew Timme the Bulldogs appear to be more complete than they were last season. They were dependent on strong guard play last season this year they can shoot from anywhere on the court and defend. There is no mistake with them being the overall top seed. 

Upset Special: Cal State Fullerton over the Duke Blue Devils. This Duke team (In Mike Krzyzewski’s final season) is one of the most talented in the nation. They have 4 probable NBA first-round picks led by Paolo Banchero. However, talent doesn’t always win out in March. This Duke team is inexperienced and has shown major immaturities. These parallels remind me of the Duke teams that lost to Lehigh and Mercer. I feel the same happens here. Duke loses in the first round.

Possible Dark Horse: Texas Tech did not miss a beat when Head Coach Chris Bard departed for rival Texas. They can defend and shoot. The issue is can they shoot it consistently to match up with an offensive powerhouse. The defense will get them to the Elite Eight. But, there is Gonzaga and that inconsistent shooting is hard to overcome against them. But they can play against anyone. 

Best Game: The probable Elite Eight match-up between Texas Tech and Gonzaga will be the best in this region. You have two teams that can score and play defense. It will be a war of attrition and entertainment. Despite Texas Tech being really good they are not exceptional. So that leads to…

Region Winner: The Gonzaga Bulldogs have been the most consistent top team in the country this season. Honestly, I do not see a team that if they are playing to their potential and talent that can match up with them in this region. They might have a close call or two (Texas Tech comes to mind) but in the end, they will be on their way to the Final Four. 

The West Region as I see it. Gonzaga will be headed to the Final Four. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

EAST REGION PREVIEW 

The East Region Bracket: Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

The Top Seed: The Baylor Bears are the defending National Champions. Throughout this season they have shown the heart of a champion. They have overcome injuries and lost players from last year’s squad. They certainly look the part behind Flow Thamba and others. They are not as deep as they were last year. However, to discount them would be a mistake

Upset Special: Virginia Tech over Texas. The Hokies started championship week on the outside looking in on the NCAA tournament. All they did was win four games in four days. And beat the top three teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament on their way to an improbable conference tournament championship. For their troubles, they were awarded an 11 seed and a match-up against Texas. They are playing so well and have momentum on their side. This continues with the upset here 

Possible Dark Horse: Saint Mary’s dominated Gonzaga in a late-season match-up. Despite Gonzaga beating them in the conference tournament final, they are a great team. They defend well and work hard on every possession. Teams will need to give their best effort to beat the Gales. Do not be shocked if they find their way to the regional final. 

Best Game:  The possible sweet sixteen match-up between Kentucky and Purdue will be an offensive slugfest. Jaden Ivey from Purdue can score from anywhere on the court and might be the most explosive player in the country. He can close down on the basket very quickly and is a big body that can finish strong. Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe will be waiting for him. This man is a double-double machine and leads the country in rebounds averaging about 15 per game. Kentucky has had spells of not shooting well and Purdue is not the defensive team they have been. This match-up is great because it is dependent on who overcomes their weaknesses more. 

Region Winner: The Kentucky Wildcats. Being the two seed Kentucky is gifted with not having to see a thin Baylor Bears team until the Elite Eight. when they could be quite worn down (if they make it that far, see my picks below). Coach John Calipari has this team playing well at the right time and is in the weakest bracket. This bodes well for the Wildcats to march onto the Final Four. 

My East Region Picks. I have Kentucky winning this region. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Join me here tomorrow as I look at the South and Midwest regions.