Iowa Hawkeyes

College Football Week 2 Picks

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By Erich R Pilcher

I have always felt that any major reaction to what happens in week one of college football is an overreaction. Despite this belief, there are trends and things we can see that could give insight into how the season is going to go. Last week I went 5-1, a decent way to start. This week has five more games I will be picking. But first, some week one observations.  

SEC DOMINANCE: The Southeastern Conference (SEC) went 14-1 last week (the only loss being LSU to Florida State). I will say that some of these games were very predictable and the opponents were grossly overmatched. However, there are some impressive wins out there. Arkansas held off a very game Cincinnati squad that qualified for the College Football Playoff (CFP). In Gainsville, the Florida Gators beat defending PAC-12 Champions, the then seventh-ranked Utah Utes, and finally defending national champions Georgia Bulldogs drubbed the Oregon Ducks 49-3, which leads to point number two 

A TIDE VS BULLDOG INEVITABILITY? Georgia played like a team with something to prove, giving quite the rude welcome to Former Defensive Coordinator Dan Lanning in his first game as the Head Coach at Oregon. This game had many looking at a possible upset and doubting the 16.5 point-line. Once again, Georgia and Alabama do not play each other in the regular season and seem to be destined for an SEC championship game showdown. I do not know if it is inevitable that both teams make the CFP. But I do think Georgia is certainly the best team in the country right now.  

PAC-12 DEEP SIXED: This past weekend both Oregon and Utah lost. This has many once again declaring the PAC-12 will be left out of the CFP. That is an unfair conclusion. USC could very well run the table and if they do that, they most assuredly would get in. The problem is they play Utah and Oregon. Both teams are more complete than USC and that is a tough hill for any team to climb let alone an unproven one. It looks like another year where the PAC-12 will cannibalize themselves out of the playoff. 

 

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas Longhorns 

NOON EST  

Fox National Broadcast 

Is Texas back? Getting Redshirt Freshman transfer Quarterback Quinn Ewers from Ohio State to couple with powerhouse Running Back Bijan Robinson is a good start. Last week Texas throttled the overmatched University of Louisiana Monroe. Now the competition goes up in the form of college football measuring stick Alabama.  

The Crimson Tide lost their usual number of players to the pros this offseason. However, Heisman Trophy winner, Quarterback Bryce Young and Defensive Lineman Tim Smith, and their coach is some guy named Nick Saban. They routed Utah State in a typical Tide-dominating fashion and appear to be ready for a run at the championship.   

Two things are working in the Longhorns’ favor. First, the game is being played in Texas and the game is set for a noon kickoff when it will be a balmy 86 degrees. One way to slow down a high-powered offense like Alabama’s is the heat. The bigger question is can Ewers, in only his second start, slay the beast that is Alabama? Nick Saban (much like his mentor Bill Belichick) loves to take away the main thing teams want to do. Texas will want Robinson to get going Early to take pressure off of Ewers in his first big game situation. I think it works for a half, but the Tide do what they do and roll late  

PREDICTION ALABAMA: 45 TEXAS 24 

  #24 Tennessee Volunteers vs #17 Pittsburgh Panthers  

3:30 PM EST 

ABC National Broadcast  

Last week Pittsburgh showed some real moxie in knocking off rival West Virginia in the return of the “Backyard Brawl”. Despite the victory, the Panthers allowed big plays and 31 points. Enter the Volunteers, who last week racked up 569 yards of total offense against Bowling Green to start Head Coach Josh Heupel’s second season. The offense loves to play fast and rack up yards quickly. 

The Vols are led by Quarterback Hendon Hooker. He can scramble and has improved his throwing. His main target is all SEC Wide receivers, Cedric Tillman. To spell those two is a two-headed monster at running back in Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small. Their downfall is an offensive line that gave up 44 sacks a year ago and Pitt loves to get after the QB.  

Pitt lost Quarterback Kenny Pickett from last year’s Conference Championship team. This has led to a more conservative approach offensively led by USC transfer Kedon Slovis, who threw for over 300 yards in his first game. That is good because they only averaged 2 yards per carry and will need to be more balanced in this game to keep the Vols off the field.  

This game will be tight. But I think in tight games, you have to go all out offensively. That gives the edge to the Vols. They score late for the mild upset  

PREDICTION TENNESSEE 38 PITTSBURGH 34 

 #20 Kentucky Wildcats vs #12 Florida Gators  

7:00 PM EST 

ESPN 

Is Florida back? Last week the Gators took a big step towards that reality by upsetting the seventh-ranked Utah Utes. They get a second consecutive big-time matchup at home when conference rival Kentucky visits.  

Florida has had a revolving door of head coaches as of late and appears to have found some stability with first-year coach Billy Napier. Anthony Richardson is a dual-threat quarterback that made big plays in last week’s upset. The Gators rushed for 268 yards and it appears they will rely on the run to carry them. 

The Wildcats play likewise. Although, they will be without star Running Back Chris Rodriguez Jr due to disciplinary reasons. This means more will be asked of Quarterback Will Levis (a Darkhorse Heisman candidate) who threw for 303 yards last week and three scores.  

One could argue that Utah still should have won last week’s game. Mistakes did them in and Florida capitalized. The question is, can the Gators be ready emotionally after the big win last week? Florida cannot rely on Levis to make the same mistake Utah Quarterback Cam Rising made last week. However, I think the Swamp will be rocking and the rejuvenated fan base will be enough to get the Gators to 2-0.  

PREDICTION KENTUCKY 40 FLORIDA 41 

UPSET SPECIAL   

#9 Baylor Bears vs #21 BYU Cougars 

9:15 PM EST 

ESPN 

These two future Big 12 rivals square off in Provo tomorrow night in a titanic top 25 showdown. Both teams are thought to be possible CFP part crashers and a win in this game would go a long way in helping their cause.  

Baylor has sped to burn with Receivers Monaray Baldwin and Ben Sims. Blake Shapen returns as the signal caller for the Bears. They do replace their top three rushers from last season. Baylor is young across the board offensively and BYU thrives at forcing mistakes. 

Offensively the Cougars are no slouch, but they are a defensive team. In last season’s matchup in Waco, the Cougars were hit with depth issues that allowed Baylor to take control late. They are healthy this season. Couple that with the game being played in Provo, with a fan base dying for a top 10 win, and this has upset written all over it. So let it be written, so let it be done.  

PREDICTION BAYLOR 21 BYU 27 

LOCAL FLAVOR
BATTLE FOR THE CY HAWK TROPHY  

Iowa State Cyclones vs Iowa Hawkeyes

3:00 PM EST 

Big Ten Network 

Last week the Iowa Hawkeyes defeated the South Dakota State Jackrabbits 7-3. They defeated the FCS power despite not scoring an offensive touchdown (their seven points were accomplished by a field goal and two safeties). Against any other opponent, their offensive ineptness would have led to almost certain defeat. The only thing that saved them, was a monumental defensive effort, herculean punting effort, and the Jackrabbits’ offensive ineptness. 

Now, here comes in-state rival Iowa State. Gone are offensive cornerstones Running Back Breece Hall and Quarterback Brock Purdy. Replacing them are Quarterback Hunter Dekkers and Wide Receiver Xavier Hutchinson (the duo connected for three touchdowns last week). The Cyclones have lost six straight in this series, but the Hawkeyes seem ripe for a loss here. 

Appearances can be deceiving. During Kirk Ferentz’s tenure, there have been times when the Hawkeyes have been written off and won a game, dispelling all worries. Dekkers is the prime concern for me. This is his first road start (in a VERY hostile environment), it’s a rivalry game and he is playing a phenomenal defense that will force him into mistakes. 

I’m going with the Hawkeyes to win this game and make it seven straight. So fire up the swarm, warm up the wave, and “Fight, fight, fight for Iowa”. The Cy-Hawk stays in Iowa City. 

PREDICITON IOWA STATE 12 IOWA 27

CURRENT RECCORD: 5-1

College Football Week 1 Picks

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By Erich R Pilcher

There is an old saying, “Fall seven times, stand up eight.” I must be a subconscious believer in that because even after my debacle that was picking the NCAA Tournament, I’m back here each Friday to pick the biggest College Football games of the week. 

To start us out on the honest path, last night I told someone I was picking West Virginia to upset Pittsburgh in the return of the “Backyard Brawl” game. Well, the Panthers won by seven. Thus I have started this season 0-1. Hopefully, I rebound with the following picks and start the year off right. 

(5) Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs (2) Ohio State Buckeyes

7:30 PM EST on ABC 

This is the premier match-up of Week One with two College Football blue bloods squaring off in Columbus. Notre Dame brings a talented, but unproven roster into this game led by new Head Coach Marcus Freeman (also an Ohio State graduate and former linebacker) and Redshirt Sophomore Quarterback Tyler Buchner (making his first career start). Meeting them is the potent Buckeye offense led by preseason Heisman Trophy front-runner, Quarterback C.J. Stroud. 

The cupboard is not bare for the Irish. They return many from a defense that was excellent last season. Returning are Defensive End Isiah Foskey, Jason Ademiola, and Line Backer Bo Bauer. They also added Northwestern Graduate Transfer Safety Brandon Joseph (to replace the superstar Cornerback, now Baltimore Raven, Kyle Hamilton). This is going to be key to slowing down Stroud and the Buckeye offense that is built around explosive plays. 

The biggest question is can the Irish score enough? They do have arguably the top Tight End in the county Micheal Mayer and Buchner showed last year in spot duty he can certainly make plays (mostly on the run). But will that be enough to keep pace with an offense that scored 45.7 points per game last season, returns key cogs in Wide Receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (last season broke the single-season and single-game school records in yards and receptions), and Running Back TreVeyon Henderson (rushed for 277 yards in one game)?

The current spread is at 17.5 points for the Buckeyes, which is a bit too steep given the talent the Irish have. I also think the Irish will shock some people defensively by getting pressure on Stroud and getting stops. However, it’s a tough hill to climb for the offense. If this game were played a month later, I would say the Irish could hang with the Buckeyes. But offensively, the Irish have too many questions and Ohio State has all the right answers. Sadly, (I’m a Notre Dame fan) Ohio State is the pick.

PREDICITON: NOTRE DAME 28 OHIO STATE 41

(11) Oregon Ducks vs (3) Georgia Bulldogs

3:30 PM EST on ESPN/ABC 

The Georgia Bulldogs FINALLY got over the hump and beat Nick Saban and Alabama en route to winning their first National Title since 1980. Oregon last year pulled off a major upset going into Columbus and knocking off Ohio State (a game that kept the Buckeyes from the College Football Playoff). No doubt they are looking to do the same to the Bulldogs in Atlanta. 

Enter new Oregon Head Coach Dan Lanning. Last year he orchestrated the Bulldog defense that was key in winning the championship. He also has a bevy of talent at his disposal with stud Linebackers Justin Flowe and Noah Seawell. One would be foolish to think that Lanning doesn’t know how to make Georgia Quarterback Stetson Bennett uncomfortable and other secrets behind the Bulldog offense. They would be even more foolish to think he won’t use them to his team’s advantage.

As was mentioned the key to the Bulldog’s run last season was a great defense. That defense only returns three starters but features a very talented group of young players that should fit in nicely. Many are expecting the offense to run wild here, but I disagree. I think defense rules the day. And I like Bennett more than Oregon’s Bo Nix to make the key plays when he needs to. Bulldogs are the pick.

PREDICITON: OREGON 13 GEORGIA 24

(23) Cincinnati Bearcats vs (19) Arkansas Razorbacks

3:30 PM EST on ESPN/ABC 

Two of last year’s best stories square off in week one. The Bearcats crashed the College Football Playoff Party after their 13-0 regular season (that included beating Notre Dame in South Bend). Arkansas started a shocking 4-0, this included wins against Texas and Texas A&M. Then the Razorbacks lost three straight. However, they rallied winning five of their last four games (only loss to Alabama, by seven)including the Outback Bowl. 

With returning players wise these teams are on the opposite end of the spectrum Cincinnatti lost much of their talent from last year’s squad. Including Quarterback Desmond Ritter and Defender Sauce Gardner, among others. Arkansas reruns much of their team including scintillating Quarterback KJ Jefferson. However, the Bearcats under Head Coach Luke Fickell have shown that they will be prepared and play to their strengths. 

I feel this will be the best game of the weekend. I think both teams will trade some thunderous shots, leading to a very “Nip and Tuck” game. However, when looking for an edge in close matchups, go with who you know. I know Arkansas has an explosive offense and they are ready to prove last year was no fluke.

PREDICTION: CINCINNATI 30 ARKANSAS 35

UPSET SPECIAL

Florida State Seminoles vs Louisiana State Tigers

SEPT. 4TH 6:30 PM EST on ABC 

Before anyone assumes this is sour grapes about Brian Kelly leaving Notre Dame for LSU, hear me out. To start last season the Seminoles took Notre Dame to overtime where they eventually lost. And, while they started the season 0-4, they rebounded to win five of their next seven and were within a field goal of a bowl game berth against rival Florida. 

LSU Returns only six starters overall and who will start at Quarterback is a mystery. Whoever starts under center will have playmaking Wide Receiver Kayshon Boute to target, the rest is as good of a guess as the quarterback. Despite a formidable receiving corps, the Tigers have major questions on the offensive line and could be missing Running Back John Emery Jr to suspension. 

The Seminoles are trending up. After some early hiccups, Mike Norvell appears to have Florida State trending upward. In his third season, he has stability on both sides of the ball, led by third-year Quarterback Jordan Travis. Add in a vast upgraded group of receivers and a three-headed monster at Running Back, and the Tigers’ defense under new coordinator Matt House will be tested. 

Everything here points to an upset. I’m taking the Seminoles

PREDICITON: FLORIDA STATE 35 LSU 27

LOCAL FLAVOR 

South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs Iowa Hawkeyes

11:05 AM EST on FS1

This life only has two guarantees, death and taxes. A third could be added as well, Kirk Ferentz is Iowa’s Head Football Coach. Ferentz begins his 24th season against FCS foe South Dakota state. The Jackrabbits did make it to the FCS semifinals and are ranked second in the FCS poll. 

The Hawkeyes started last 6-0 (and ranked second in the polls) behind a stifling defense. But, an inept offense led to the Hawkeyes being embarrassed by Purdue and Wisconsin. They rebounded to win four hard-fought games in a row before getting housed by Michigan in the B10 Championship Game and losing to Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl. 

The stingy defense returns most of their starters. Any questions regarding the offense should not be an issue in this game. I look for the game to be close for the first half and for Iowa’s defense to play lights out in the second half, putting the Jackrabbits away.

PREDICTION: IOWA 31 SDSU 13

That does it for this week’s games. If there are any games you would like to see picked feel free to comment or send an email. Thanks for reading and let’s enjoy the season 

Season Record: 0-1

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March Madness Preview: South and Midwest Regions

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By Erich R Pilcher

Here we are with day two of the NCAA Tournament breakdown. Next, we will look at the South and Midwest regions. Then Tomorrow, I break down my Final Four picks (that will inevitably go down in flames after the first weekend). 

SOUTH REGION PREVIEW 

The South Region Bracket. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

The Top Seed: The Arizona Wildcats from the PAC 10 claimed the one seed in quite the improbable run. They are led by first-time head coach Tommy Lloyd and had the burden of NCCA infractions hanging over them from former Head Coach Sean Miller. They are led by Bennedict Mathurin and have two other NBA-ready stars in Christian Koloko and Azoulas Tubelis. They are incredibly efficient on both sides of the floor and have excelled against top competition. They hold 15 wins over Quad 1 and 2 opponents. This includes a sweep of the PAC-10 Regular Season and Conference Tournament Championships. 

Upset Special: I think in the round of 32 we see a 12 vs 13 seed match-up. I’m picking UAB to upset Houston and Chattanooga to upset Illinois. Houston plays a style that is exactly what UAB wants. And when UAB has been in the tournament, they have made some noise. Illinois, despite winning the Big Ten regular-season championship, has been disappointing this season. I feel there are better teams in the Big 10 than Illinois and just feel that Chattanooga is going to play with no fear and force the vaunted Illinois front line to defend on the perimeter and that has been trouble for the Illini. 

Possible Dark Horse: In yesterday’s post I questioned Michigan avoiding a play-in game. However, make no mistake, they are a good team. They can defend and can go on hot streaks shooting-wise. Where they have struggled is with turnovers and inexperience. This would be a good spot to show everyone they deserve to be in the tournament and being doubted can be a major motivator. 

Best Game: I like the possible Sweet Sixteen match-up between Tennessee and Villanova. There is a saying that “Styles make fights” and that applies here. Tennessee has played stellar defense throughout the season. Then we know what Villanova wants to do, they want to get out, run and shoot the lights out. This is a standard whoever imposes their will first wins. And it will be for our entertainment certainly. 

Region Winner: The Arizona Wildcats. I struggled with this. I think Tennessee could very well win this region as well. But the Wildcats have been more consistent throughout the season and I think the three stars they have are going to be too much for the Volunteers to overcome. Expect a very entertaining Elite Eight contest between the two, don’t be surprised if Tennessee guts out a win. I feel Arizona is the pick with the slightest of edges. 

My South region picks. I have Arizona winning this region. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

MIDWEST REGION PREVIEW 

The Midwest Region bracket. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

The Top Seed: The Kansas Jayhawks. Tell me if you have heard this before, Kansas sweeps the Big 12 conference regular season and tournament championships. You have because it has become normal and not the exception. Kansas Head Coach Bill Self has run one of the most consistent programs in the last 15 plus years. This year they are loaded with veteran talent and great shooting. They do tend to sag off on defense a bit and can become turnover prone. But if they are clicking they are one of the toughest teams to beat in the nation. 

Upset Special: This bracket might have the best top five teams in it (Kansas, Auburn, Wisconsin, Providence, and Iowa). All season I have felt the Auburn Tigers were a tad overrated. They do not have stellar guard play and in March that can be a fatal flaw. Enter the University of Southern California (USC). They have great play all-around at the guard position and this could be big trouble for Auburn. They can get the Tigers frontline into foul trouble, then attack the inside. I’m taking the Trojans to upset Auburn in the Round of 32. 

Possible Dark Horse: There was a time when whoever won the Big East was feared in the tournament. But after having many teams leave the conference, they have become an afterthought. However, regular-season conference champion Providence Friars are not a team anyone wants to play. They do not have any superstars or play flashy. What they do have is 5 players that average double-digit points and they find ways to win big games (they hold wins over Wisconsin, Texas Tech, and Connecticut). That is the biggest truth in March, survive and advance.

Best Game:  The possible second-round match-up between Iowa and Providence. You have two nearly identical teams. Iowa has the star power with Keegan Murray and sharpshooting from Jordan Bohannon. Where the Hawkeyes struggle is defensively and when you are playing a team like Providence that shares the ball well and anyone can score, that can hurt you. This will be a battle but Providence doing the little things well gives them the edge. 

Region Winner: The Kansas Jayhawks. I do not think they will have an issue being motivated in this region. I try to avoid going “chalk”, but this year I feel that the tournament was seeded mostly (ahem, Tennessee Volunteers as a 3 seed?) correctly. Kansas has been generally consistent this season and did not show signs of slowing down in the Big 12 conference tournament. Their veteran leadership and being battle-tested will pay dividends playing in arguably the toughest region. 

My Midwest Region picks. I have Kansas marching on to the Final Four. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Join me here tomorrow as I make my Final Four and National Champion picks.