Miami Hurricanes

The Eyes Have It

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By Erich R Pilcher

An American Football season is unlike any other, no matter the level at which it is competed at. It doesn’t have the plodding nature of a baseball season, and it lacks the lulls that hockey and basketball provide. It is a nine-to-twenty-game sprint (depending on level of competition, location, etc.) to desired championship glory. It is what happens during that sprint that keeps us captivated, and in college football, it has opened a firestorm of controversy and hot takes.

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are currently 9-2 and are ranked ninth in the College Football Playoff rankings. Since starting the season 0-2. They have won nine consecutive games and have dominated in doing so, beating all opponents by double digits. Their ranking would give them one of the coveted 12 spots in the playoffs if the season ended today. That is where the perceived issues begin.

One of the teams Notre Dame lost to (in week one), the Miami Hurricanes, are ranked 12th. They currently have identical 9-2 records. This has led many to cry for Justice, brand bias, and other ridiculous claims. What makes them ridiculous is that they are not based in fact or even on what the eyes see.

POINT 1: YES, HEAD TO HEAD MATTERS, BUT…

Since the aforementioned loss, calling Notre Dame dominant would be an understatement. They have won 9 consecutive games by close to thirty points per game. They have done so against two ranked opponents (USC and at Pittsburgh) and two Group of 5 teams (Navy and Boise State) that could play for their conference championship. Notre Dame’s only other loss occurred to Texas A&M two weeks after the Miami loss. That loss was by one point (due to a botched hold on an extra point try and an egregious missed holding call on the game-winning touchdown). Texas A&M is undefeated and ranked fourth.

Miami is a different story. They lost at home to unranked Louisville, then on the road to unranked Southern Methodist University (SMU). Since that win, Louisville is mired in a three-game losing streak. SMU has surged, but the Louisville loss still hurts the Hurricanes in a larger way because of what they have shown as of late.

I do think head-to-head matters, but it is not empirical. Basing a decision on one game, especially one from week one, does not tell the whole story. By basing it only on that result, you are saying a team cannot improve or get worse. Two things we know to be false.

POINT 2: JUST COMPARE THEM AGAINST EACH OTHER
This seems like a logical conclusion, and it is one made in large part by Miami supporters. However, it does not help Miami’s case; as a matter of fact, it hurts it even more. In the table below (Courtesy of Bryan Driskell of Irish Breakdown), you see a better comparison is Notre Dame versus Alabama (ranked tenth). In almost every comparison, Notre Dame is better than Miami. This includes key metrics Strength of Record (SOR), Strength of Schedule (SOS), and quality wins.

IMAGE COURTESY OF BRYAN DRISKELL OF IRISH BREAKDOWN

POINT 3: WHO NEEDS THE COMMITTEE, THEY JUST GET IT WRONG ANYWAY
Before the playoff began in the 2014 season, college football used the Bowl Championship Series (BCS). This would put various rankings into the computer and average teams out. Another common crying point by Miami is that the committee does not know football. In the table below, we see that Miami would not even be in the playoffs using the BCS formula, as they wouldn’t be in the top twelve. Also of note, Notre Dame is ranked in the top twelve in all of them except one (A&H) and holds an average ranking of seventh. This would not only put Notre Dame in the playoffs, but also give them a home playoff game

FINAL POINT: STOP SCHEDULING NOTRE DAME

This is just as ridiculous as the age-old diatribe “Notre Dame should join a conference”. The only reason Miami is even in consideration for a playoff spot is that they beat Notre Dame. Without that game, they would need countless miracles to get back into consideration. Miami is currently fifth in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) standings. To even get to the conference championship game, they need to win at Pittsburgh and get a lot of help. If that win over Notre Dame was against a lesser team, they would not even be in the top 20.

As we approach the final regular-season weekend, the case for Miami is not comparing it to Notre Dame. It is what you see from them. When you watch Miami, do you see one of the 12 best teams in the country? I do not feel that is the case. They have been inconsistent, and in the games they have lost, they have given away the game through penalties and inexcusable turnovers. If Miami misses the playoffs, they have no one to blame but themselves. Not a committee and certainly not Notre Dame.

College Football Week 4 Picks

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By Erich R Pilcher

Last week I did not find games that I felt were appealing to guess and I had a busy week. So I took a week off. Two weeks ago, I finished 3-2, bringing the season record to 8-3. So as conference play kicks off we have 4 games on tap in this week’s picks, but first some observations. 

1,2,3 AND THEN EVERYONE ELSE: Last time I wrote about Georgia and Alabama seemingly being on a crash course in both the SEC Championship and probable College Football Playoff matchup. Let’s throw Ohio State into the mix. These three teams have separated themselves from the pack. It appears it is them and then everyone else. Could a team knock them off? Certainly. But can it happen twice? Doubtful. 

SUN SHINES ON THE SUN BELT: In week 2 Georgia Southern, Marshall, and Appalachian State all went on the road against Nebraska, Notre Dame, and then sixth-ranked Texas A&M respectively, and won games. This is nothing but good for college football (despite my Fighting Irish being on the losing end of arguably the worst loss in school history). This gives parity and proves that early games cannot be overlooked

HUSKING FOR SAVINGS? Following the aforementioned loss to Georgia Southern, Nebraska fired Head Coach Scott Frost, giving him the dubious distinction of being the first head coach fired this season (Arizona State’s Herm Edwards was the second fired last week). The shocking aspect is that had Nebraska waited until October 1, they would have only paid frost 7.5 million instead of the 15 million they owe him. Nebraska under interim head coach Mickey Joseph and was housed 49-14 by Oklahoma in Lincoln. My point is, Scott Frost wouldn’t have done worse than that and even if he had, was anyone disappointed in Nebraska this season so far or enough to justify spending an extra 7.5 million to fire him three weeks early? I do not think so. 

#10 Arkansas (3-0) vs #23 Texas A&M (2-1)

6:00 PM EST  

ESPN

Last year Arkansas coming out party was upsetting then-undefeated Texas A&M. Since then their only loss has been to Alabama. Texas A&M rebounded from their shocking upset to Appalachian State to win a slugfest with Miami. Using an unpenetrable defense to overcome offensive shortcomings.

The Aggie defense could have a performance as they did against Miami but they will need offense in this game. The Razorbacks have KJ Jefferson as Quarterback and Raheim Sanders and Running Back averaging 147 yards per game. That is bad news for the Aggies as they are susceptible to the run and Arkansas can use that to their advantage 

For me, if the Aggie defense can get to the Razorbacks early and take them off their game early they have a chance. But that offense has been notoriously bad for Texas A&M. Arkansas will allow some points, but I’m thinking the Aggie defense wears down and allows a score late. The Hogs are the pick 

PREDICTION ARKANSAS 31 TEXAS A&M 23

  #5 Clemson (3-0) vs #21 Wake Forest (3-0)

11:00 AM EST 

ESPN

This is the first test this season for both of these teams. Clemson had their unprecedented run in the ACC Championships end last season finishing a disappointing 8-5. This was in large part due to their offensive struggles and the struggles of Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei. This season the offense has looked better than last season and despite losing Defensive Coordinator Brent Venables to Oklahoma the defense has shown flashes of rounding back into dominance

Wake Forest is led by Quarterback Sam Hartman. This offense revolves around the Run Pass Option and Hartman runs it masterfully. The problem is the defense they see in Clemson has one of the best defensive fronts in the country. They will need to run the ball to free Hartman up to make plays. 

To beat the Tigers a team must be well-rounded. Wake Forest relies on explosive plays and that will play right into Clemson’s strength. This game will be close for the first half. But the good roundness of the Tigers wins out in the end. 

PREDICTION CLEMSON 38 WAKE FOREST 20

 #20 Florida (2-1) vs #11 Tennessee (3-0)

3:00 PM EST 

CBS

After week one, there was a thought that Florida could be back on the rise. However, a loss to Kentucky and a missed field goal from USF-inducing victory have pundits questioning if they jumped to conclusions. Tennessee has hummed right along after last season’s blazing finish. 

The Volunteers are led by dual-threat Quarterback Hendon Hooker. This season he has completed 70 percent of his passes. Florida runs out a well-rounded defense to combat the Vol’s high-powered offense. Although they have been susceptible to big plays.

For the Gators, they have to find a way to run the ball consistently. That means Quarterback Anthony Richardson needs to throw the ball well and make plays with his feet. The theory here is the offense is your best defense. 

In rivalry games such as this, anything can happen and usually does. At some point, talent just wins out. The Vols are the better team and they prove it by winning in front of what will be a rowdy home crowd. 

PREDICTION FLORIDA 20 TENNESSEE 33

 Wisconsin (2-1) vs #3 Ohio State (3-0)

6:30 PM EST 

ESPN 

It will be a blackout at the Horseshoe for this showdown between two teams that pride themselves in physicality. They just show it in different ways

In week one, Ohio State was tested by Notre Dame (they pulled away late using a punishing rushing attack) and have blown out two underwhelming opponents since. 

Wisconsin uses a rushing attack led by running back Braelon Allen. He currently averages over six yards per carry and has five touchdowns. Quarterback Graham Mertz has finally shown the promise he had as a recruit. He has completed over 70 percent of his passes and leads the B10 with 11.2 yards per pass completion. 

The main issue for the Badgers is how to stop the Ohio State potent offense led by CJ Stroud. And Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Ohio State could be more reliant on the throw with running back TreVeyon Henderson banged up. This could play into Wisconsin’s hand defensively, being able to put pressure on Stroud and possibly forcing some mistakes. 

I think this Ohio State team is a different beast. That will show in this game. I do not think it’s a blowout but much like they did against the Irish, Buckeyes pull away late.

PREDICTION WISCONSIN 17 OHIO STATE 28

LAST WEEK 3-2

CURRENT RECORD: 8-3