NCAA Tournament Predictions

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March Madness: Rounds one and two recap. Sweet Sixteen preview.

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By Erich R Pilcher

My picks. Red equals wrong, sadly for me. Grahpic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

We are one weekend into the tournament and I have good news and bad news. The good, I still have three of my Final Four teams left. The bad news is my bracket is a battlefield of red. I’m sitting in ninth place out of fifteen in my bracket contest. So, I return a broken and defeated man to give some analysis and predictions that will, no doubt, blow up in my face.

ANALYSIS OF ROUNDS ONE AND TWO

Saint Peters Peacocks after upsetting college basketball blue bloods Kentucky in the first round.
Photo Courtesy: Getty Images

The East Region: If there was ever anything that led to the chaos of this tournament it is this region. Gone are seeds one (Baylor) and two (Kentucky, to upset darlings Saint Peter’s). I picked Kentucky to win this region and they are gone. This region is wide open. North Carolina looked impressive, UCLA appears to have found their mojo from last season at around this time, and Purdue, with the most explosive player in the country Jaden Ivey. This region is up for grabs and will be the most entertaining this week. 

Kansas Jayhawks guard Remy Martin celebrates fater a big play against the Creighton BlueJays
Photo Courtesy: Google Images

Toughness and resolve: These two words are required to win this tournament and two college basketball blue-bloods, showed they have it in their second-round contests. The Kansas Jayhawks were in a battle with the Creighton BlueJays. Creighton was vastly undermanned and it looked like another disappointing end for Kansas. But through Remy Martin and David McCormick, they found that toughness needed to thwart Creighton and move on. 

For the Duke Blue Devils, they were playing for more than to advance. They were playing to keep the career of their legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski going (he is retiring when this season ends). Michigan State showed they were up to the task of battling the very talented Blue Devils matching them blow for blow throughout the game. I called Duke immature in my preview and felt they were too inconsistent. But they, like Kansas, showed they are ready for March and can officially be called a threat to cut down the nets. 

Big Ten shows up small: When the Big Ten had nine of the 12 teams make the field, people thought that they would be assured of one or two teams making a run to the Final Four. After the first two rounds, only two teams remain (Michigan and Purdue). I have always believed that conferences that get a majority of their teams into the dance are ripe to be picked off early. That is because they are in a dogfight every game of their conference season. Then they have the conference tourney and finally make it to the NCAA tournament where they could be up against a team that has had an easier go of it, more reset, and have had more time to prepare. That is what has happened here. The Big Ten might have been the best conference this season, but that does not translate to success in March. 

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE SWEET SIXTEEN AND POSSIBLE ELITE EIGHT MATCHUPS

Best Game: Duke Blue Devils against Texas Tech Red Raiders is going to be a contrast of differences. Texas Tech relies on a lockdown defense and Duke relies on scoring and hot shooting to win games. Can Duke use the resolve and experience gained from the Michigan State game to take out one of the top defenses in the country? A better question is can Texas Tech win a shootout against the Blue Devils and handle the depth they present? I feel talent will win out here and give Duke the edge. However, this Wis going to be the most entertaining game of the Sweet Sixteen.

North Carolina’s Armando Bacot drives the lane against the Baylor Bears in the Tar Heels upset victory in the scond round of the NCAA Tournament. Photo Courtesy: Getty Images

Upset Special:  I have been very impressed with North Carolina so far in this tournament. I know they blew a twenty-five-point lead to Baylor (worst Flagrant 2 foul call I have ever seen) but they did end up winning and seem to be meshing at the right time. UCLA is a tough match-up but I look at Armando Bacot and Leaky Black to push the tempo and do just enough defensively to propel the Tar Heels into the Elite Eight. 

THURSDAY SWEET SIXTEEN GAMES (picks are in bold):

(1W)Gonzaga Bulldogs vs (4W) Arkansas Razorbacks 6:09 PM CST

(11S)Michigan Wolverines vs (2S)Villanova Wildcats 6:29 PM CST 

(3W) Texas Tech vs (2W) Duke Blue Devils 8:39 PM CST

(5S) Houston Cougars vs (1S) Arizona Wildcats 8:59 PM CST

FRIDAY SWEET SIXTEEN GAMES (picks are in bold):

(15E)Saint Peters vs (3E) Purdue Boilermakers 6:09 PM CST

(1MW) Kansas Jayhawks vs (4MW) Providence Friars 6:29 PM CST 

(8E) North Carolina vs (4E) UCLA 8:39 PM CST

(11MW) Iowa State vs (10MW) Miami Hurricanes 8:59 PM CST 

I hope everyone enjoys the games this week. I will be back next Monday with my Final Four preview.

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March Madness Preview: South and Midwest Regions

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By Erich R Pilcher

Here we are with day two of the NCAA Tournament breakdown. Next, we will look at the South and Midwest regions. Then Tomorrow, I break down my Final Four picks (that will inevitably go down in flames after the first weekend). 

SOUTH REGION PREVIEW 

The South Region Bracket. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

The Top Seed: The Arizona Wildcats from the PAC 10 claimed the one seed in quite the improbable run. They are led by first-time head coach Tommy Lloyd and had the burden of NCCA infractions hanging over them from former Head Coach Sean Miller. They are led by Bennedict Mathurin and have two other NBA-ready stars in Christian Koloko and Azoulas Tubelis. They are incredibly efficient on both sides of the floor and have excelled against top competition. They hold 15 wins over Quad 1 and 2 opponents. This includes a sweep of the PAC-10 Regular Season and Conference Tournament Championships. 

Upset Special: I think in the round of 32 we see a 12 vs 13 seed match-up. I’m picking UAB to upset Houston and Chattanooga to upset Illinois. Houston plays a style that is exactly what UAB wants. And when UAB has been in the tournament, they have made some noise. Illinois, despite winning the Big Ten regular-season championship, has been disappointing this season. I feel there are better teams in the Big 10 than Illinois and just feel that Chattanooga is going to play with no fear and force the vaunted Illinois front line to defend on the perimeter and that has been trouble for the Illini. 

Possible Dark Horse: In yesterday’s post I questioned Michigan avoiding a play-in game. However, make no mistake, they are a good team. They can defend and can go on hot streaks shooting-wise. Where they have struggled is with turnovers and inexperience. This would be a good spot to show everyone they deserve to be in the tournament and being doubted can be a major motivator. 

Best Game: I like the possible Sweet Sixteen match-up between Tennessee and Villanova. There is a saying that “Styles make fights” and that applies here. Tennessee has played stellar defense throughout the season. Then we know what Villanova wants to do, they want to get out, run and shoot the lights out. This is a standard whoever imposes their will first wins. And it will be for our entertainment certainly. 

Region Winner: The Arizona Wildcats. I struggled with this. I think Tennessee could very well win this region as well. But the Wildcats have been more consistent throughout the season and I think the three stars they have are going to be too much for the Volunteers to overcome. Expect a very entertaining Elite Eight contest between the two, don’t be surprised if Tennessee guts out a win. I feel Arizona is the pick with the slightest of edges. 

My South region picks. I have Arizona winning this region. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

MIDWEST REGION PREVIEW 

The Midwest Region bracket. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

The Top Seed: The Kansas Jayhawks. Tell me if you have heard this before, Kansas sweeps the Big 12 conference regular season and tournament championships. You have because it has become normal and not the exception. Kansas Head Coach Bill Self has run one of the most consistent programs in the last 15 plus years. This year they are loaded with veteran talent and great shooting. They do tend to sag off on defense a bit and can become turnover prone. But if they are clicking they are one of the toughest teams to beat in the nation. 

Upset Special: This bracket might have the best top five teams in it (Kansas, Auburn, Wisconsin, Providence, and Iowa). All season I have felt the Auburn Tigers were a tad overrated. They do not have stellar guard play and in March that can be a fatal flaw. Enter the University of Southern California (USC). They have great play all-around at the guard position and this could be big trouble for Auburn. They can get the Tigers frontline into foul trouble, then attack the inside. I’m taking the Trojans to upset Auburn in the Round of 32. 

Possible Dark Horse: There was a time when whoever won the Big East was feared in the tournament. But after having many teams leave the conference, they have become an afterthought. However, regular-season conference champion Providence Friars are not a team anyone wants to play. They do not have any superstars or play flashy. What they do have is 5 players that average double-digit points and they find ways to win big games (they hold wins over Wisconsin, Texas Tech, and Connecticut). That is the biggest truth in March, survive and advance.

Best Game:  The possible second-round match-up between Iowa and Providence. You have two nearly identical teams. Iowa has the star power with Keegan Murray and sharpshooting from Jordan Bohannon. Where the Hawkeyes struggle is defensively and when you are playing a team like Providence that shares the ball well and anyone can score, that can hurt you. This will be a battle but Providence doing the little things well gives them the edge. 

Region Winner: The Kansas Jayhawks. I do not think they will have an issue being motivated in this region. I try to avoid going “chalk”, but this year I feel that the tournament was seeded mostly (ahem, Tennessee Volunteers as a 3 seed?) correctly. Kansas has been generally consistent this season and did not show signs of slowing down in the Big 12 conference tournament. Their veteran leadership and being battle-tested will pay dividends playing in arguably the toughest region. 

My Midwest Region picks. I have Kansas marching on to the Final Four. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Join me here tomorrow as I make my Final Four and National Champion picks.

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March Madness Preview: West and East Regions

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By Erich R Pilcher

The madness has arrived. As we count down until Thursday at noon eastern when the first game tips off (play-in games on Tuesday and Wednesday non-withstanding) there will be analysis upon analysis and predictions galore. So, if you will indulge me, I will throw my hat into the ring.

Today I will be taking a look at the East and West regions with predictions and regional winners. However, first I will give my opinions on the bracket. 

If these are the numbers the NCAA Selection Comitteee basis thier chocies on, they must explain leaving Texas A & M out of the Big Dance. Graphic Courtesy of Bracketologists.com

Left Out: I thought Texas A&M did enough to play their way into the tournament. And the numbers would agree with that. When you look at their NET rating it is better than Notre Dame, Wyoming, and Rutgers. Their Strength of Schedule (SOS) is better than Wyoming and Notre Dame. The only argument against them would be their Quad One record (4-10, but identical to Notre Dame percentage-wise). However, their overall profile and the way they played in the SEC tournament would dictate they should have gone dancing.

Michigan Head Basketball Coach Juwan Howard led Michigan back to the tournament despite playing the seventh toughest schedule in the country, a 17-14 record and a late season suspension for striking an opposing coach. Photo Courtesy: Michigan Live

Seeding Gripe: Two teams were miss seeded in opposite directions. Michigan, was seeded as an 11 seed and missed a play in-game. In their last game, they blew a 17 point lead against Indiana (selected to a play in-game) and have been inconsistent throughout the season. Their resume was their saving grace. They have the seventh toughest schedule in the country and went 8-13 against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. I feel their record (17-14) and the way the season finished should have put them in the play-in situation. 

On the flip side Southeastern Conference (SEC) Tournament champion Tennessee Volunteers should have bumped Kentucky from the two-line. They are a three-seed but went 4-1 against Auburn (regular-season conference champion) and Kentucky (who they beat in the Conference Tournament semifinals) that alone should have allowed them to overtake one of them for a two seed. 

Will Wade was fired by LSU the day before Selection Sunday after major NCAA violations were alleged.
Photo Courtesy: Atlanata Journal Democrat

Why are they in: Louisiana State University (LSU) fired Head Coach Will Wade on Saturday after the school was notified by the NCAA of mass improprieties alleged against him and his staff. They were selected to take part in the tournament. No doubt the student-athletes worked hard to get here and from what we know, none of the current players were involved in wrongdoing. But why have them take part in a tournament when the appearance will more than likely, just be vacated once the NCAA concludes their investigation? That is an answer that has not been given and sadly these players will feel the hurt of their accomplishments being wiped away, albeit delayed. 

WEST REGION PREVIEW 

The West Bracket. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

The Top Seed: The Gonzaga Bulldogs suffered no hangover from their destruction at the hand of Baylor in the National Title game last season. Behind Freshman Chet Holmgren and veteran Andrew Timme the Bulldogs appear to be more complete than they were last season. They were dependent on strong guard play last season this year they can shoot from anywhere on the court and defend. There is no mistake with them being the overall top seed. 

Upset Special: Cal State Fullerton over the Duke Blue Devils. This Duke team (In Mike Krzyzewski’s final season) is one of the most talented in the nation. They have 4 probable NBA first-round picks led by Paolo Banchero. However, talent doesn’t always win out in March. This Duke team is inexperienced and has shown major immaturities. These parallels remind me of the Duke teams that lost to Lehigh and Mercer. I feel the same happens here. Duke loses in the first round.

Possible Dark Horse: Texas Tech did not miss a beat when Head Coach Chris Bard departed for rival Texas. They can defend and shoot. The issue is can they shoot it consistently to match up with an offensive powerhouse. The defense will get them to the Elite Eight. But, there is Gonzaga and that inconsistent shooting is hard to overcome against them. But they can play against anyone. 

Best Game: The probable Elite Eight match-up between Texas Tech and Gonzaga will be the best in this region. You have two teams that can score and play defense. It will be a war of attrition and entertainment. Despite Texas Tech being really good they are not exceptional. So that leads to…

Region Winner: The Gonzaga Bulldogs have been the most consistent top team in the country this season. Honestly, I do not see a team that if they are playing to their potential and talent that can match up with them in this region. They might have a close call or two (Texas Tech comes to mind) but in the end, they will be on their way to the Final Four. 

The West Region as I see it. Gonzaga will be headed to the Final Four. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

EAST REGION PREVIEW 

The East Region Bracket: Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

The Top Seed: The Baylor Bears are the defending National Champions. Throughout this season they have shown the heart of a champion. They have overcome injuries and lost players from last year’s squad. They certainly look the part behind Flow Thamba and others. They are not as deep as they were last year. However, to discount them would be a mistake

Upset Special: Virginia Tech over Texas. The Hokies started championship week on the outside looking in on the NCAA tournament. All they did was win four games in four days. And beat the top three teams in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament on their way to an improbable conference tournament championship. For their troubles, they were awarded an 11 seed and a match-up against Texas. They are playing so well and have momentum on their side. This continues with the upset here 

Possible Dark Horse: Saint Mary’s dominated Gonzaga in a late-season match-up. Despite Gonzaga beating them in the conference tournament final, they are a great team. They defend well and work hard on every possession. Teams will need to give their best effort to beat the Gales. Do not be shocked if they find their way to the regional final. 

Best Game:  The possible sweet sixteen match-up between Kentucky and Purdue will be an offensive slugfest. Jaden Ivey from Purdue can score from anywhere on the court and might be the most explosive player in the country. He can close down on the basket very quickly and is a big body that can finish strong. Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe will be waiting for him. This man is a double-double machine and leads the country in rebounds averaging about 15 per game. Kentucky has had spells of not shooting well and Purdue is not the defensive team they have been. This match-up is great because it is dependent on who overcomes their weaknesses more. 

Region Winner: The Kentucky Wildcats. Being the two seed Kentucky is gifted with not having to see a thin Baylor Bears team until the Elite Eight. when they could be quite worn down (if they make it that far, see my picks below). Coach John Calipari has this team playing well at the right time and is in the weakest bracket. This bodes well for the Wildcats to march onto the Final Four. 

My East Region Picks. I have Kentucky winning this region. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Join me here tomorrow as I look at the South and Midwest regions.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: Pilchers Point March Madness Coverage

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It is that time of the year, Bracket Busters, Cinderellas, Upsets, Buzzer Beaters and so much more become a part of our everyday world. March Madness is upon us.

This is my FAVORITE time of the year and to celebrate(sleep and sanity can wait) this site will have wall-to-wall coverage of the tournament.

Starting on March 14, I will be doing a post breaking down two regions (so two on the 14 and two on the 15) in these posts I will break down each region, upsets, and other interesting tidbits I may have.
Then on the 16th, I will break down my Final Four predictions and championship pick.

Once the madness starts (on the 17), I will be live-tweeting (click here to follow me) as best as I can throughout the day. Then each Monday, I will break down the action from the previous four days and write the obituary of my certainly busted bracket.

On March 18, I will be reviewing one of the most heralded documentaries of all time, Hoop Dreams for Matt Connarton Unleashed on WMNH Radio. This film follows two men for their four-year high school career as they try to overcome poverty and tragedy to achieve their dream of making it to the NBA. Also, Friday will be a blog post looking at those that tried to achieve the same dream and it turned into a nightmare.

I hope you join me. Please read, comment and let us discuss this most maddening and joyful time of the year!

MARCH MADNESS COVERAGE SCHEDULE:

Monday March 14, 2022 East and West Bracket Breakdown and Predictions
Tuesday March 15, 2022 South and Midwest Bracket Breakdown and Predictions
Wednsday March 16, 2022 Final Four and Championship Game Breakdown and Predictions
Thursday March 17, 2022 The Tournament Begins with live tweeting. Follow me here ERPilcher319
Friday March 18, 2022 Hoop Dreams Film Review for Matt Connarton Unleahed on WMNH Radio.
Friday March 18, 2022 New Blog Post tying into th Classic Film Review, When a Dream Becomes a Nightmare
Monday March 21, 2022 Blog Post breaking down all the action of the first two rounds and Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight analysis.