March Madness: Final Four and National Championship Game Previews and Predicitions

Here we are. The final weekend of the College Basketball season. Hard to believe that just two weeks ago 68 teams were vying to be the National Champion and now we are down to 4. There have been upsets, history made (a fifteen seed made the Elite Eight) and at the end of it all we have four historically great teams and one monumental, never before happened showdown.

FINAL FOUR PREVIEW

GAME 1: (1MW) KANSAS JAYHAWKS VS (2S) VILLANOVA WILDCATS 

TIP-OFF 6:09 PM EST 

Kansas Ochai Agbaji and Villanova’s Collin Gellespie leas thier teams against each other in the first game of the Final Four. Photo Courtesy: Sporting News

When this tournament first started, I had Kansas as one of my Final Four teams (my other three Gonzaga, Arizona, and Kentucky are all gone). This season there have been questions about Kansas’ toughness and consistency. Safe to say, those questions have been answered. They had a battle with undermanned Creighton in the second round, another struggle against Providence and then a dominant second half against Miami turned a deficit into a 26 point blowout. Kansas has leaned on its stars Ochai Agbaji, David McCormick, and Christian Braun. Arizona State transfer Remy Martin has meshed with the offense at the right time. Kansas is starting to look like the team that many had pegged to win it all. 

Villanova has flown under the radar for most of the season. They won the Big East Tournament behind the shooting of Senior Guard Collin Gillespie. The Wildcats have had to be gritty all season long. They only go 6-7 players deep and have lost second-leading scorer Justin Moore to a torn Achilles. On the surface, they should be in trouble. But head coach Jay Wright has been here before and knows how to the most out of his team in these situations.

What I see happening in this game is, Villanova cannot get into a track meet. They have to make this game slow and keep it a half-court game. Kansas is a strong defensive team (especially in this tournament). Gillespie must have a big game and the Wildcats have to find a way to get Kansas into foul trouble to even up the depth issue they will face. To combat this, Martin needs to be the star he is morphing into in this tourney. This takes the pressure off the other three stars and will allow them to operate freely. If this happens, Villanova will be in for a long night. 

I have a hard time picking against Wright. But, Kansas is playing so well right now and they seem destined to play Monday night. The loss of Moore is going to be monumental here and as good as Gillespie is, Kansas is more complete. I got the Jayhawks moving onto Monday night. 

PREDICTION: KANSAS JAYHAWKS 71 VILLANOVA WILDCATS 55

GAME 2: (2W) DUKE BLUE DEVILS VS (8E) NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS 

APPROX TIP OFF 7:49 PM (30 MINUTES FOLLOWING FIRST GAME)

Wendel Moore Jr of Duke drives against Leaky Black of North Carolina
Phot Courtesy: Getty Images

In history, there have been many rivalries and feuds. In college sports, it does not get any better than Duke and North Carolina. These two teams have had monumental battles throughout the ACC and Duke Head Coach Mike Krzyzewski has no bigger rival than the Tar Heels. This is just purely poetic to have him face off with them in the Final Four in his final season. Add in the fact these two storied rivals have never faced in the NCAA Tournament and this is going to be a massively historic matchup. 

Duke has handled this being their legendary head coach’s final year throughout this season. At his point, it is safe to say they are used to it. Of greater concern is the fact that Carolina dominated Duke in Durham in the last game of the regular season for Coach K and his last home game. The Tar Heels did this using a frantic defense that kept Duke out of rhythm all night, especially Stars Paolo Banchero and Wendell Moore Jr. 

North Carolina is spearheaded by a three-pronged attack led by Armando Bacot, Leaky Black, and Brady Manex. During this tourney, the Tar Heels have played exception defense while shooting lights out. They have frustrated opponents by getting out to leads early and using their pace to take teams out of their game. 

Duke, much like Kansas, is showing their preseason promise. Banchero, Moore, and Mark Williams have been dominant this tournament and have shown that they are worthy of all the NBA hype they have received. Add in the rise of Trevor Keels and the timely hot hand of Jeremy Roach and the Blue Devils are a load to defend. If you zone them, they find the soft spots in the zone and get to the line. If you play man, their length is a mismatch because all five players can shoot from anywhere, and that threat allows them to drive the lane with impunity. 

The key is going to be, can North Carolina replicate their performance from Cameron? If they can disrupt Duke early and shake their confidence they can then rely on their three-headed monster to get out, run and force Duke to chase them around. If they cannot do this, Duke will be able to move the ball around and pick their shots. That will then allow them to set their defense and play their game at a moderate pace and wear down their rival. 

This game means everything in this rivalry. If UNC wins, they can say they ended Coach K’s career. If Duke wins they are one step closer to giving their coach a championship ending to his career. This will be ugly early with both teams feeling each other out. However, I think Duke will be too much and their newly found championship resolve will shine through. Banchero hits a late shot and the Blue Devils salt it away at the line. 

PREDICTION: DUKE BLUE DEVILS 68 NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS 63

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: KANSAS JAYHAWKS VS DUKE BLUE DEVILS 

In 1992 when Duke won their first National Tittle they beat the Kansas Jayhawks. It was the first of 5 for Coach K and was the beginning of his ascent to greatness. 

These two teams are nearly identical. They both have star power, they both are playing phenomenally at the right time and both were preseason picks to be here (depending on who you listened to or what you read). 

The key to the game will be one thing. Fouls and mistakes. These two teams are reasonably deep, so whoever can get the other into foul trouble first will have a major advantage. Kansas does have issues of cold shooting and turning the ball over. Against Miami in the Elite Eight, Kansas had an eight-point deficit at the half. This was due to bad shot selection and turnovers. They were able to overcome this and win by 26 points. Against Duke, they won’t be able to turn the tide like that. I also feel that Duke’s starting five will be able to keep Kansas off the offensive glass and limit them to one-shot opportunities. Their size will also disrupt the offensive flow of Kansas and force them into mistakes. 

Finally, it will just be poetic for the greatest coach ever to win a championship in his final game against the team he beat for his first national title. Duke wins their sixth title in an explosive, nail-biting fashion. 

Coach Mike Krzyzewski cutting the nets down in 1991 after defeating the Kansas Jayhawks for his first national championship. History repeats itself for his final championship. Photo Courtesy: CBS Sports

PREDICTION: DUKE BLUE DEVILS 83 KANSAS JAYHAWKS 79

I hope everyone enjoys the conclusion to what has been an excellent college basketball season.  

March Madness: Rounds one and two recap. Sweet Sixteen preview.

By Erich R Pilcher

My picks. Red equals wrong, sadly for me. Grahpic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

We are one weekend into the tournament and I have good news and bad news. The good, I still have three of my Final Four teams left. The bad news is my bracket is a battlefield of red. I’m sitting in ninth place out of fifteen in my bracket contest. So, I return a broken and defeated man to give some analysis and predictions that will, no doubt, blow up in my face.

ANALYSIS OF ROUNDS ONE AND TWO

Saint Peters Peacocks after upsetting college basketball blue bloods Kentucky in the first round.
Photo Courtesy: Getty Images

The East Region: If there was ever anything that led to the chaos of this tournament it is this region. Gone are seeds one (Baylor) and two (Kentucky, to upset darlings Saint Peter’s). I picked Kentucky to win this region and they are gone. This region is wide open. North Carolina looked impressive, UCLA appears to have found their mojo from last season at around this time, and Purdue, with the most explosive player in the country Jaden Ivey. This region is up for grabs and will be the most entertaining this week. 

Kansas Jayhawks guard Remy Martin celebrates fater a big play against the Creighton BlueJays
Photo Courtesy: Google Images

Toughness and resolve: These two words are required to win this tournament and two college basketball blue-bloods, showed they have it in their second-round contests. The Kansas Jayhawks were in a battle with the Creighton BlueJays. Creighton was vastly undermanned and it looked like another disappointing end for Kansas. But through Remy Martin and David McCormick, they found that toughness needed to thwart Creighton and move on. 

For the Duke Blue Devils, they were playing for more than to advance. They were playing to keep the career of their legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski going (he is retiring when this season ends). Michigan State showed they were up to the task of battling the very talented Blue Devils matching them blow for blow throughout the game. I called Duke immature in my preview and felt they were too inconsistent. But they, like Kansas, showed they are ready for March and can officially be called a threat to cut down the nets. 

Big Ten shows up small: When the Big Ten had nine of the 12 teams make the field, people thought that they would be assured of one or two teams making a run to the Final Four. After the first two rounds, only two teams remain (Michigan and Purdue). I have always believed that conferences that get a majority of their teams into the dance are ripe to be picked off early. That is because they are in a dogfight every game of their conference season. Then they have the conference tourney and finally make it to the NCAA tournament where they could be up against a team that has had an easier go of it, more reset, and have had more time to prepare. That is what has happened here. The Big Ten might have been the best conference this season, but that does not translate to success in March. 

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE SWEET SIXTEEN AND POSSIBLE ELITE EIGHT MATCHUPS

Best Game: Duke Blue Devils against Texas Tech Red Raiders is going to be a contrast of differences. Texas Tech relies on a lockdown defense and Duke relies on scoring and hot shooting to win games. Can Duke use the resolve and experience gained from the Michigan State game to take out one of the top defenses in the country? A better question is can Texas Tech win a shootout against the Blue Devils and handle the depth they present? I feel talent will win out here and give Duke the edge. However, this Wis going to be the most entertaining game of the Sweet Sixteen.

North Carolina’s Armando Bacot drives the lane against the Baylor Bears in the Tar Heels upset victory in the scond round of the NCAA Tournament. Photo Courtesy: Getty Images

Upset Special:  I have been very impressed with North Carolina so far in this tournament. I know they blew a twenty-five-point lead to Baylor (worst Flagrant 2 foul call I have ever seen) but they did end up winning and seem to be meshing at the right time. UCLA is a tough match-up but I look at Armando Bacot and Leaky Black to push the tempo and do just enough defensively to propel the Tar Heels into the Elite Eight. 

THURSDAY SWEET SIXTEEN GAMES (picks are in bold):

(1W)Gonzaga Bulldogs vs (4W) Arkansas Razorbacks 6:09 PM CST

(11S)Michigan Wolverines vs (2S)Villanova Wildcats 6:29 PM CST 

(3W) Texas Tech vs (2W) Duke Blue Devils 8:39 PM CST

(5S) Houston Cougars vs (1S) Arizona Wildcats 8:59 PM CST

FRIDAY SWEET SIXTEEN GAMES (picks are in bold):

(15E)Saint Peters vs (3E) Purdue Boilermakers 6:09 PM CST

(1MW) Kansas Jayhawks vs (4MW) Providence Friars 6:29 PM CST 

(8E) North Carolina vs (4E) UCLA 8:39 PM CST

(11MW) Iowa State vs (10MW) Miami Hurricanes 8:59 PM CST 

I hope everyone enjoys the games this week. I will be back next Monday with my Final Four preview.

March Madness Preview: Final Four and National Championship game

By Erich R Pilcher

We are a little over 24 hours from the start of March Madness. Today I will make my Final Four selections and pick my National Champion. Without further ado, let’s get started.

WEST REGION WINNER VS EAST REGION WINNER

The Match-up: I predicted that the Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Region one seed) would take on the Kentucky Wildcats (East Region two seed).

 Game Analysis: Kentucky Head Basketball Coach John Calipari has been one of the most successful coaches using the “one and done” philosophy. However this season he has experience on his side. This has led to Kentucky having the most efficient offense in the SEC. The problem has been injuries and the team not meshing well throughout the season. Those issues appear to be resolved (their semi-final loss to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament Semi-fInal non-withstanding). Oscar Tshiebwe is the driving force in their efficient offense. He gathers 40% of the Wildcat’s missed shots when he is in the game. Couple in three starters averaging over double digits, this team can spread the ball around and score. Issues have been defensive lapses and turnovers. Also if Tshiebwe is off the floor, they do not have a major interior presence. 

What can I say about the Gonzaga Bulldogs that has not already been said? The answer is not much. They have been the most consistent team throughout this roller-coaster season. They are also well-rounded they rank in the top 10 for both defensive and offensive efficiency. This coupled with two excellent shooting bigs, Chet Holmgren and Drew Timme, creates matchup nightmares for many teams in the country. These two can shoot and make it from anywhere. On the other end, they pressure teams with a frantic defense that forces bad shots. If they get on a roll they are nearly unstoppable. 

The Prediction: Unlike many college basketball pundits, I’m a John Calipari fan. I truly believe he gets the most out of his players while he has them and then moves them to the NBA. Because of this, him having an experienced team will be a benefit here. The problem I see is Tshiebwe will have to be a perimeter defender at key points because of Holmgren and Timme, that has not been a recipe for success for Kentucky. The longer the Wildcats can keep him in the paint, the better off they will be. Sadly, I do not think they can do it long enough to win this game. I look for the ‘Zags to go on a late run to put this game away and move onto the National Championship game.

I predict Gonzaga will beat Kentucky in the first Final Four match-up
Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Gonzaga:78 Kentucky: 65 

SOUTH REGION WINNER VS MIDWEST REGION WINNER

The Match-up: I predicted that the Arizona Wildcats (South Region one seed) would take on the Kansas Jayhawks (Midwest Region one seed). 

Game Analysis: The Arizona Wildcats were not a pick to be in this position when the season started. You would have been remiss to find anyone picking them to make any postseason tournament at all. Led by a first-year head coach, NCAA Infractions hanging over them. However, coach Tommy Lloyd has the Wildcats primed for a major run. They shoot the ball exceptionally well (shooting 49% from the field) and have a three-headed monster of future NBA talent Azoulas Tubelis, Christian Koloko, and Bennedict Mathurin. They also defend well ranking in the top 15 of defensive efficiency. 

The Kansas Jayhawks are just as experienced as they are talented. NBA Prospects Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun led the way for the Jayhawks. They also have a great supporting cast around them. They make 56% of their shots from the field. But they do have a fatal flaw, they only regularly play 6 guys. This and coming out of the toughest region in this year’s tournament could be a problem come Final Four time. If Remy Martin can play consistently (something that has plagued him following his transfer from Arizona State this season) that will help with the depth issue and take the focus off of Agbaji and Braun. 

The Prediction: This is going to be a battle of attrition. Neither team has a deep bench so early fouls will be something to watch out for. The team that avoids this trouble will have a major edge in the game late. I do like this Kansas squad. They have been resilient and played well against top competition. What I do not like is after Braun and Agbaji, they miss someone who can step up and take the load off of them. I think Arizona will be more well-rounded in this game and cause problems with their three talented players. This will be a nail bitter, but I take Arizona late. 

I have Arizona continuing thier improbable season, defeating Kansas and moving onto the National Title game. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Arizona: 68 Kansas: 63

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME:

The Match-up: I predicted the Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Region one seed) would take on the Arizona Wildcats (South Region one seed). 

The Prediction: I’m skipping the analysis here because I feel that both of these teams have been well covered throughout this three-part preview. The key is going to be, can Arizona find a way to combat the size of Timme and Holmgren. Also, experience is monumental in this situation. Gonzaga has been here two out of the past four years. They have been knocking on this door for quite some time. I would be remiss to not add Arizona Head Coach Tommy Lloyd was hired away from Gonzaga, so he has experience in these situations. But that does not translate to team experience. I just do not see any way the ‘zags do not cut down the nets this year. All season they have been the most consistent team and have been playing towards this moment after being destroyed by Baylor in last year’s title game. Arizona will hang around but Holmgren and Timme take over in the second half and end any suspense. Gonzaga will be your 2022 National Champions. 

The Gonzaga Bulldogs will be the last team standing this year. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Gonzaga: 78 Arizona: 71

I will be live-tweeting throughout the NCAA Tournament. Feel free to follow me at Erpilcher319 or access tweets on the right-hand side of this page (tweet feed on this blog is only available on laptop or desktop viewing). Also, feel free to comment on any of these posts when my bracket goes up in flames by the end of this weekend. Finally, please enjoy the madness.