Tennessee Volunteers

College Football Week 4 Picks

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By Erich R Pilcher

Last week I did not find games that I felt were appealing to guess and I had a busy week. So I took a week off. Two weeks ago, I finished 3-2, bringing the season record to 8-3. So as conference play kicks off we have 4 games on tap in this week’s picks, but first some observations. 

1,2,3 AND THEN EVERYONE ELSE: Last time I wrote about Georgia and Alabama seemingly being on a crash course in both the SEC Championship and probable College Football Playoff matchup. Let’s throw Ohio State into the mix. These three teams have separated themselves from the pack. It appears it is them and then everyone else. Could a team knock them off? Certainly. But can it happen twice? Doubtful. 

SUN SHINES ON THE SUN BELT: In week 2 Georgia Southern, Marshall, and Appalachian State all went on the road against Nebraska, Notre Dame, and then sixth-ranked Texas A&M respectively, and won games. This is nothing but good for college football (despite my Fighting Irish being on the losing end of arguably the worst loss in school history). This gives parity and proves that early games cannot be overlooked

HUSKING FOR SAVINGS? Following the aforementioned loss to Georgia Southern, Nebraska fired Head Coach Scott Frost, giving him the dubious distinction of being the first head coach fired this season (Arizona State’s Herm Edwards was the second fired last week). The shocking aspect is that had Nebraska waited until October 1, they would have only paid frost 7.5 million instead of the 15 million they owe him. Nebraska under interim head coach Mickey Joseph and was housed 49-14 by Oklahoma in Lincoln. My point is, Scott Frost wouldn’t have done worse than that and even if he had, was anyone disappointed in Nebraska this season so far or enough to justify spending an extra 7.5 million to fire him three weeks early? I do not think so. 

#10 Arkansas (3-0) vs #23 Texas A&M (2-1)

6:00 PM EST  

ESPN

Last year Arkansas coming out party was upsetting then-undefeated Texas A&M. Since then their only loss has been to Alabama. Texas A&M rebounded from their shocking upset to Appalachian State to win a slugfest with Miami. Using an unpenetrable defense to overcome offensive shortcomings.

The Aggie defense could have a performance as they did against Miami but they will need offense in this game. The Razorbacks have KJ Jefferson as Quarterback and Raheim Sanders and Running Back averaging 147 yards per game. That is bad news for the Aggies as they are susceptible to the run and Arkansas can use that to their advantage 

For me, if the Aggie defense can get to the Razorbacks early and take them off their game early they have a chance. But that offense has been notoriously bad for Texas A&M. Arkansas will allow some points, but I’m thinking the Aggie defense wears down and allows a score late. The Hogs are the pick 

PREDICTION ARKANSAS 31 TEXAS A&M 23

  #5 Clemson (3-0) vs #21 Wake Forest (3-0)

11:00 AM EST 

ESPN

This is the first test this season for both of these teams. Clemson had their unprecedented run in the ACC Championships end last season finishing a disappointing 8-5. This was in large part due to their offensive struggles and the struggles of Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei. This season the offense has looked better than last season and despite losing Defensive Coordinator Brent Venables to Oklahoma the defense has shown flashes of rounding back into dominance

Wake Forest is led by Quarterback Sam Hartman. This offense revolves around the Run Pass Option and Hartman runs it masterfully. The problem is the defense they see in Clemson has one of the best defensive fronts in the country. They will need to run the ball to free Hartman up to make plays. 

To beat the Tigers a team must be well-rounded. Wake Forest relies on explosive plays and that will play right into Clemson’s strength. This game will be close for the first half. But the good roundness of the Tigers wins out in the end. 

PREDICTION CLEMSON 38 WAKE FOREST 20

 #20 Florida (2-1) vs #11 Tennessee (3-0)

3:00 PM EST 

CBS

After week one, there was a thought that Florida could be back on the rise. However, a loss to Kentucky and a missed field goal from USF-inducing victory have pundits questioning if they jumped to conclusions. Tennessee has hummed right along after last season’s blazing finish. 

The Volunteers are led by dual-threat Quarterback Hendon Hooker. This season he has completed 70 percent of his passes. Florida runs out a well-rounded defense to combat the Vol’s high-powered offense. Although they have been susceptible to big plays.

For the Gators, they have to find a way to run the ball consistently. That means Quarterback Anthony Richardson needs to throw the ball well and make plays with his feet. The theory here is the offense is your best defense. 

In rivalry games such as this, anything can happen and usually does. At some point, talent just wins out. The Vols are the better team and they prove it by winning in front of what will be a rowdy home crowd. 

PREDICTION FLORIDA 20 TENNESSEE 33

 Wisconsin (2-1) vs #3 Ohio State (3-0)

6:30 PM EST 

ESPN 

It will be a blackout at the Horseshoe for this showdown between two teams that pride themselves in physicality. They just show it in different ways

In week one, Ohio State was tested by Notre Dame (they pulled away late using a punishing rushing attack) and have blown out two underwhelming opponents since. 

Wisconsin uses a rushing attack led by running back Braelon Allen. He currently averages over six yards per carry and has five touchdowns. Quarterback Graham Mertz has finally shown the promise he had as a recruit. He has completed over 70 percent of his passes and leads the B10 with 11.2 yards per pass completion. 

The main issue for the Badgers is how to stop the Ohio State potent offense led by CJ Stroud. And Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Ohio State could be more reliant on the throw with running back TreVeyon Henderson banged up. This could play into Wisconsin’s hand defensively, being able to put pressure on Stroud and possibly forcing some mistakes. 

I think this Ohio State team is a different beast. That will show in this game. I do not think it’s a blowout but much like they did against the Irish, Buckeyes pull away late.

PREDICTION WISCONSIN 17 OHIO STATE 28

LAST WEEK 3-2

CURRENT RECORD: 8-3

College Football Week 2 Picks

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By Erich R Pilcher

I have always felt that any major reaction to what happens in week one of college football is an overreaction. Despite this belief, there are trends and things we can see that could give insight into how the season is going to go. Last week I went 5-1, a decent way to start. This week has five more games I will be picking. But first, some week one observations.  

SEC DOMINANCE: The Southeastern Conference (SEC) went 14-1 last week (the only loss being LSU to Florida State). I will say that some of these games were very predictable and the opponents were grossly overmatched. However, there are some impressive wins out there. Arkansas held off a very game Cincinnati squad that qualified for the College Football Playoff (CFP). In Gainsville, the Florida Gators beat defending PAC-12 Champions, the then seventh-ranked Utah Utes, and finally defending national champions Georgia Bulldogs drubbed the Oregon Ducks 49-3, which leads to point number two 

A TIDE VS BULLDOG INEVITABILITY? Georgia played like a team with something to prove, giving quite the rude welcome to Former Defensive Coordinator Dan Lanning in his first game as the Head Coach at Oregon. This game had many looking at a possible upset and doubting the 16.5 point-line. Once again, Georgia and Alabama do not play each other in the regular season and seem to be destined for an SEC championship game showdown. I do not know if it is inevitable that both teams make the CFP. But I do think Georgia is certainly the best team in the country right now.  

PAC-12 DEEP SIXED: This past weekend both Oregon and Utah lost. This has many once again declaring the PAC-12 will be left out of the CFP. That is an unfair conclusion. USC could very well run the table and if they do that, they most assuredly would get in. The problem is they play Utah and Oregon. Both teams are more complete than USC and that is a tough hill for any team to climb let alone an unproven one. It looks like another year where the PAC-12 will cannibalize themselves out of the playoff. 

 

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas Longhorns 

NOON EST  

Fox National Broadcast 

Is Texas back? Getting Redshirt Freshman transfer Quarterback Quinn Ewers from Ohio State to couple with powerhouse Running Back Bijan Robinson is a good start. Last week Texas throttled the overmatched University of Louisiana Monroe. Now the competition goes up in the form of college football measuring stick Alabama.  

The Crimson Tide lost their usual number of players to the pros this offseason. However, Heisman Trophy winner, Quarterback Bryce Young and Defensive Lineman Tim Smith, and their coach is some guy named Nick Saban. They routed Utah State in a typical Tide-dominating fashion and appear to be ready for a run at the championship.   

Two things are working in the Longhorns’ favor. First, the game is being played in Texas and the game is set for a noon kickoff when it will be a balmy 86 degrees. One way to slow down a high-powered offense like Alabama’s is the heat. The bigger question is can Ewers, in only his second start, slay the beast that is Alabama? Nick Saban (much like his mentor Bill Belichick) loves to take away the main thing teams want to do. Texas will want Robinson to get going Early to take pressure off of Ewers in his first big game situation. I think it works for a half, but the Tide do what they do and roll late  

PREDICTION ALABAMA: 45 TEXAS 24 

  #24 Tennessee Volunteers vs #17 Pittsburgh Panthers  

3:30 PM EST 

ABC National Broadcast  

Last week Pittsburgh showed some real moxie in knocking off rival West Virginia in the return of the “Backyard Brawl”. Despite the victory, the Panthers allowed big plays and 31 points. Enter the Volunteers, who last week racked up 569 yards of total offense against Bowling Green to start Head Coach Josh Heupel’s second season. The offense loves to play fast and rack up yards quickly. 

The Vols are led by Quarterback Hendon Hooker. He can scramble and has improved his throwing. His main target is all SEC Wide receivers, Cedric Tillman. To spell those two is a two-headed monster at running back in Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small. Their downfall is an offensive line that gave up 44 sacks a year ago and Pitt loves to get after the QB.  

Pitt lost Quarterback Kenny Pickett from last year’s Conference Championship team. This has led to a more conservative approach offensively led by USC transfer Kedon Slovis, who threw for over 300 yards in his first game. That is good because they only averaged 2 yards per carry and will need to be more balanced in this game to keep the Vols off the field.  

This game will be tight. But I think in tight games, you have to go all out offensively. That gives the edge to the Vols. They score late for the mild upset  

PREDICTION TENNESSEE 38 PITTSBURGH 34 

 #20 Kentucky Wildcats vs #12 Florida Gators  

7:00 PM EST 

ESPN 

Is Florida back? Last week the Gators took a big step towards that reality by upsetting the seventh-ranked Utah Utes. They get a second consecutive big-time matchup at home when conference rival Kentucky visits.  

Florida has had a revolving door of head coaches as of late and appears to have found some stability with first-year coach Billy Napier. Anthony Richardson is a dual-threat quarterback that made big plays in last week’s upset. The Gators rushed for 268 yards and it appears they will rely on the run to carry them. 

The Wildcats play likewise. Although, they will be without star Running Back Chris Rodriguez Jr due to disciplinary reasons. This means more will be asked of Quarterback Will Levis (a Darkhorse Heisman candidate) who threw for 303 yards last week and three scores.  

One could argue that Utah still should have won last week’s game. Mistakes did them in and Florida capitalized. The question is, can the Gators be ready emotionally after the big win last week? Florida cannot rely on Levis to make the same mistake Utah Quarterback Cam Rising made last week. However, I think the Swamp will be rocking and the rejuvenated fan base will be enough to get the Gators to 2-0.  

PREDICTION KENTUCKY 40 FLORIDA 41 

UPSET SPECIAL   

#9 Baylor Bears vs #21 BYU Cougars 

9:15 PM EST 

ESPN 

These two future Big 12 rivals square off in Provo tomorrow night in a titanic top 25 showdown. Both teams are thought to be possible CFP part crashers and a win in this game would go a long way in helping their cause.  

Baylor has sped to burn with Receivers Monaray Baldwin and Ben Sims. Blake Shapen returns as the signal caller for the Bears. They do replace their top three rushers from last season. Baylor is young across the board offensively and BYU thrives at forcing mistakes. 

Offensively the Cougars are no slouch, but they are a defensive team. In last season’s matchup in Waco, the Cougars were hit with depth issues that allowed Baylor to take control late. They are healthy this season. Couple that with the game being played in Provo, with a fan base dying for a top 10 win, and this has upset written all over it. So let it be written, so let it be done.  

PREDICTION BAYLOR 21 BYU 27 

LOCAL FLAVOR
BATTLE FOR THE CY HAWK TROPHY  

Iowa State Cyclones vs Iowa Hawkeyes

3:00 PM EST 

Big Ten Network 

Last week the Iowa Hawkeyes defeated the South Dakota State Jackrabbits 7-3. They defeated the FCS power despite not scoring an offensive touchdown (their seven points were accomplished by a field goal and two safeties). Against any other opponent, their offensive ineptness would have led to almost certain defeat. The only thing that saved them, was a monumental defensive effort, herculean punting effort, and the Jackrabbits’ offensive ineptness. 

Now, here comes in-state rival Iowa State. Gone are offensive cornerstones Running Back Breece Hall and Quarterback Brock Purdy. Replacing them are Quarterback Hunter Dekkers and Wide Receiver Xavier Hutchinson (the duo connected for three touchdowns last week). The Cyclones have lost six straight in this series, but the Hawkeyes seem ripe for a loss here. 

Appearances can be deceiving. During Kirk Ferentz’s tenure, there have been times when the Hawkeyes have been written off and won a game, dispelling all worries. Dekkers is the prime concern for me. This is his first road start (in a VERY hostile environment), it’s a rivalry game and he is playing a phenomenal defense that will force him into mistakes. 

I’m going with the Hawkeyes to win this game and make it seven straight. So fire up the swarm, warm up the wave, and “Fight, fight, fight for Iowa”. The Cy-Hawk stays in Iowa City. 

PREDICITON IOWA STATE 12 IOWA 27

CURRENT RECCORD: 5-1

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March Madness Preview: South and Midwest Regions

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By Erich R Pilcher

Here we are with day two of the NCAA Tournament breakdown. Next, we will look at the South and Midwest regions. Then Tomorrow, I break down my Final Four picks (that will inevitably go down in flames after the first weekend). 

SOUTH REGION PREVIEW 

The South Region Bracket. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

The Top Seed: The Arizona Wildcats from the PAC 10 claimed the one seed in quite the improbable run. They are led by first-time head coach Tommy Lloyd and had the burden of NCCA infractions hanging over them from former Head Coach Sean Miller. They are led by Bennedict Mathurin and have two other NBA-ready stars in Christian Koloko and Azoulas Tubelis. They are incredibly efficient on both sides of the floor and have excelled against top competition. They hold 15 wins over Quad 1 and 2 opponents. This includes a sweep of the PAC-10 Regular Season and Conference Tournament Championships. 

Upset Special: I think in the round of 32 we see a 12 vs 13 seed match-up. I’m picking UAB to upset Houston and Chattanooga to upset Illinois. Houston plays a style that is exactly what UAB wants. And when UAB has been in the tournament, they have made some noise. Illinois, despite winning the Big Ten regular-season championship, has been disappointing this season. I feel there are better teams in the Big 10 than Illinois and just feel that Chattanooga is going to play with no fear and force the vaunted Illinois front line to defend on the perimeter and that has been trouble for the Illini. 

Possible Dark Horse: In yesterday’s post I questioned Michigan avoiding a play-in game. However, make no mistake, they are a good team. They can defend and can go on hot streaks shooting-wise. Where they have struggled is with turnovers and inexperience. This would be a good spot to show everyone they deserve to be in the tournament and being doubted can be a major motivator. 

Best Game: I like the possible Sweet Sixteen match-up between Tennessee and Villanova. There is a saying that “Styles make fights” and that applies here. Tennessee has played stellar defense throughout the season. Then we know what Villanova wants to do, they want to get out, run and shoot the lights out. This is a standard whoever imposes their will first wins. And it will be for our entertainment certainly. 

Region Winner: The Arizona Wildcats. I struggled with this. I think Tennessee could very well win this region as well. But the Wildcats have been more consistent throughout the season and I think the three stars they have are going to be too much for the Volunteers to overcome. Expect a very entertaining Elite Eight contest between the two, don’t be surprised if Tennessee guts out a win. I feel Arizona is the pick with the slightest of edges. 

My South region picks. I have Arizona winning this region. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

MIDWEST REGION PREVIEW 

The Midwest Region bracket. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

The Top Seed: The Kansas Jayhawks. Tell me if you have heard this before, Kansas sweeps the Big 12 conference regular season and tournament championships. You have because it has become normal and not the exception. Kansas Head Coach Bill Self has run one of the most consistent programs in the last 15 plus years. This year they are loaded with veteran talent and great shooting. They do tend to sag off on defense a bit and can become turnover prone. But if they are clicking they are one of the toughest teams to beat in the nation. 

Upset Special: This bracket might have the best top five teams in it (Kansas, Auburn, Wisconsin, Providence, and Iowa). All season I have felt the Auburn Tigers were a tad overrated. They do not have stellar guard play and in March that can be a fatal flaw. Enter the University of Southern California (USC). They have great play all-around at the guard position and this could be big trouble for Auburn. They can get the Tigers frontline into foul trouble, then attack the inside. I’m taking the Trojans to upset Auburn in the Round of 32. 

Possible Dark Horse: There was a time when whoever won the Big East was feared in the tournament. But after having many teams leave the conference, they have become an afterthought. However, regular-season conference champion Providence Friars are not a team anyone wants to play. They do not have any superstars or play flashy. What they do have is 5 players that average double-digit points and they find ways to win big games (they hold wins over Wisconsin, Texas Tech, and Connecticut). That is the biggest truth in March, survive and advance.

Best Game:  The possible second-round match-up between Iowa and Providence. You have two nearly identical teams. Iowa has the star power with Keegan Murray and sharpshooting from Jordan Bohannon. Where the Hawkeyes struggle is defensively and when you are playing a team like Providence that shares the ball well and anyone can score, that can hurt you. This will be a battle but Providence doing the little things well gives them the edge. 

Region Winner: The Kansas Jayhawks. I do not think they will have an issue being motivated in this region. I try to avoid going “chalk”, but this year I feel that the tournament was seeded mostly (ahem, Tennessee Volunteers as a 3 seed?) correctly. Kansas has been generally consistent this season and did not show signs of slowing down in the Big 12 conference tournament. Their veteran leadership and being battle-tested will pay dividends playing in arguably the toughest region. 

My Midwest Region picks. I have Kansas marching on to the Final Four. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Join me here tomorrow as I make my Final Four and National Champion picks.