Villanova Wildcats

Featured

March Madness: Final Four and National Championship Game Previews and Predicitions

/ epilcher319 / Leave a comment

Here we are. The final weekend of the College Basketball season. Hard to believe that just two weeks ago 68 teams were vying to be the National Champion and now we are down to 4. There have been upsets, history made (a fifteen seed made the Elite Eight) and at the end of it all we have four historically great teams and one monumental, never before happened showdown.

FINAL FOUR PREVIEW

GAME 1: (1MW) KANSAS JAYHAWKS VS (2S) VILLANOVA WILDCATS 

TIP-OFF 6:09 PM EST 

Kansas Ochai Agbaji and Villanova’s Collin Gellespie leas thier teams against each other in the first game of the Final Four. Photo Courtesy: Sporting News

When this tournament first started, I had Kansas as one of my Final Four teams (my other three Gonzaga, Arizona, and Kentucky are all gone). This season there have been questions about Kansas’ toughness and consistency. Safe to say, those questions have been answered. They had a battle with undermanned Creighton in the second round, another struggle against Providence and then a dominant second half against Miami turned a deficit into a 26 point blowout. Kansas has leaned on its stars Ochai Agbaji, David McCormick, and Christian Braun. Arizona State transfer Remy Martin has meshed with the offense at the right time. Kansas is starting to look like the team that many had pegged to win it all. 

Villanova has flown under the radar for most of the season. They won the Big East Tournament behind the shooting of Senior Guard Collin Gillespie. The Wildcats have had to be gritty all season long. They only go 6-7 players deep and have lost second-leading scorer Justin Moore to a torn Achilles. On the surface, they should be in trouble. But head coach Jay Wright has been here before and knows how to the most out of his team in these situations.

What I see happening in this game is, Villanova cannot get into a track meet. They have to make this game slow and keep it a half-court game. Kansas is a strong defensive team (especially in this tournament). Gillespie must have a big game and the Wildcats have to find a way to get Kansas into foul trouble to even up the depth issue they will face. To combat this, Martin needs to be the star he is morphing into in this tourney. This takes the pressure off the other three stars and will allow them to operate freely. If this happens, Villanova will be in for a long night. 

I have a hard time picking against Wright. But, Kansas is playing so well right now and they seem destined to play Monday night. The loss of Moore is going to be monumental here and as good as Gillespie is, Kansas is more complete. I got the Jayhawks moving onto Monday night. 

PREDICTION: KANSAS JAYHAWKS 71 VILLANOVA WILDCATS 55

GAME 2: (2W) DUKE BLUE DEVILS VS (8E) NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS 

APPROX TIP OFF 7:49 PM (30 MINUTES FOLLOWING FIRST GAME)

Wendel Moore Jr of Duke drives against Leaky Black of North Carolina
Phot Courtesy: Getty Images

In history, there have been many rivalries and feuds. In college sports, it does not get any better than Duke and North Carolina. These two teams have had monumental battles throughout the ACC and Duke Head Coach Mike Krzyzewski has no bigger rival than the Tar Heels. This is just purely poetic to have him face off with them in the Final Four in his final season. Add in the fact these two storied rivals have never faced in the NCAA Tournament and this is going to be a massively historic matchup. 

Duke has handled this being their legendary head coach’s final year throughout this season. At his point, it is safe to say they are used to it. Of greater concern is the fact that Carolina dominated Duke in Durham in the last game of the regular season for Coach K and his last home game. The Tar Heels did this using a frantic defense that kept Duke out of rhythm all night, especially Stars Paolo Banchero and Wendell Moore Jr. 

North Carolina is spearheaded by a three-pronged attack led by Armando Bacot, Leaky Black, and Brady Manex. During this tourney, the Tar Heels have played exception defense while shooting lights out. They have frustrated opponents by getting out to leads early and using their pace to take teams out of their game. 

Duke, much like Kansas, is showing their preseason promise. Banchero, Moore, and Mark Williams have been dominant this tournament and have shown that they are worthy of all the NBA hype they have received. Add in the rise of Trevor Keels and the timely hot hand of Jeremy Roach and the Blue Devils are a load to defend. If you zone them, they find the soft spots in the zone and get to the line. If you play man, their length is a mismatch because all five players can shoot from anywhere, and that threat allows them to drive the lane with impunity. 

The key is going to be, can North Carolina replicate their performance from Cameron? If they can disrupt Duke early and shake their confidence they can then rely on their three-headed monster to get out, run and force Duke to chase them around. If they cannot do this, Duke will be able to move the ball around and pick their shots. That will then allow them to set their defense and play their game at a moderate pace and wear down their rival. 

This game means everything in this rivalry. If UNC wins, they can say they ended Coach K’s career. If Duke wins they are one step closer to giving their coach a championship ending to his career. This will be ugly early with both teams feeling each other out. However, I think Duke will be too much and their newly found championship resolve will shine through. Banchero hits a late shot and the Blue Devils salt it away at the line. 

PREDICTION: DUKE BLUE DEVILS 68 NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS 63

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: KANSAS JAYHAWKS VS DUKE BLUE DEVILS 

In 1992 when Duke won their first National Tittle they beat the Kansas Jayhawks. It was the first of 5 for Coach K and was the beginning of his ascent to greatness. 

These two teams are nearly identical. They both have star power, they both are playing phenomenally at the right time and both were preseason picks to be here (depending on who you listened to or what you read). 

The key to the game will be one thing. Fouls and mistakes. These two teams are reasonably deep, so whoever can get the other into foul trouble first will have a major advantage. Kansas does have issues of cold shooting and turning the ball over. Against Miami in the Elite Eight, Kansas had an eight-point deficit at the half. This was due to bad shot selection and turnovers. They were able to overcome this and win by 26 points. Against Duke, they won’t be able to turn the tide like that. I also feel that Duke’s starting five will be able to keep Kansas off the offensive glass and limit them to one-shot opportunities. Their size will also disrupt the offensive flow of Kansas and force them into mistakes. 

Finally, it will just be poetic for the greatest coach ever to win a championship in his final game against the team he beat for his first national title. Duke wins their sixth title in an explosive, nail-biting fashion. 

Coach Mike Krzyzewski cutting the nets down in 1991 after defeating the Kansas Jayhawks for his first national championship. History repeats itself for his final championship. Photo Courtesy: CBS Sports

PREDICTION: DUKE BLUE DEVILS 83 KANSAS JAYHAWKS 79

I hope everyone enjoys the conclusion to what has been an excellent college basketball season.  

Featured

March Madness Preview: South and Midwest Regions

/ epilcher319 / Leave a comment

By Erich R Pilcher

Here we are with day two of the NCAA Tournament breakdown. Next, we will look at the South and Midwest regions. Then Tomorrow, I break down my Final Four picks (that will inevitably go down in flames after the first weekend). 

SOUTH REGION PREVIEW 

The South Region Bracket. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

The Top Seed: The Arizona Wildcats from the PAC 10 claimed the one seed in quite the improbable run. They are led by first-time head coach Tommy Lloyd and had the burden of NCCA infractions hanging over them from former Head Coach Sean Miller. They are led by Bennedict Mathurin and have two other NBA-ready stars in Christian Koloko and Azoulas Tubelis. They are incredibly efficient on both sides of the floor and have excelled against top competition. They hold 15 wins over Quad 1 and 2 opponents. This includes a sweep of the PAC-10 Regular Season and Conference Tournament Championships. 

Upset Special: I think in the round of 32 we see a 12 vs 13 seed match-up. I’m picking UAB to upset Houston and Chattanooga to upset Illinois. Houston plays a style that is exactly what UAB wants. And when UAB has been in the tournament, they have made some noise. Illinois, despite winning the Big Ten regular-season championship, has been disappointing this season. I feel there are better teams in the Big 10 than Illinois and just feel that Chattanooga is going to play with no fear and force the vaunted Illinois front line to defend on the perimeter and that has been trouble for the Illini. 

Possible Dark Horse: In yesterday’s post I questioned Michigan avoiding a play-in game. However, make no mistake, they are a good team. They can defend and can go on hot streaks shooting-wise. Where they have struggled is with turnovers and inexperience. This would be a good spot to show everyone they deserve to be in the tournament and being doubted can be a major motivator. 

Best Game: I like the possible Sweet Sixteen match-up between Tennessee and Villanova. There is a saying that “Styles make fights” and that applies here. Tennessee has played stellar defense throughout the season. Then we know what Villanova wants to do, they want to get out, run and shoot the lights out. This is a standard whoever imposes their will first wins. And it will be for our entertainment certainly. 

Region Winner: The Arizona Wildcats. I struggled with this. I think Tennessee could very well win this region as well. But the Wildcats have been more consistent throughout the season and I think the three stars they have are going to be too much for the Volunteers to overcome. Expect a very entertaining Elite Eight contest between the two, don’t be surprised if Tennessee guts out a win. I feel Arizona is the pick with the slightest of edges. 

My South region picks. I have Arizona winning this region. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

MIDWEST REGION PREVIEW 

The Midwest Region bracket. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

The Top Seed: The Kansas Jayhawks. Tell me if you have heard this before, Kansas sweeps the Big 12 conference regular season and tournament championships. You have because it has become normal and not the exception. Kansas Head Coach Bill Self has run one of the most consistent programs in the last 15 plus years. This year they are loaded with veteran talent and great shooting. They do tend to sag off on defense a bit and can become turnover prone. But if they are clicking they are one of the toughest teams to beat in the nation. 

Upset Special: This bracket might have the best top five teams in it (Kansas, Auburn, Wisconsin, Providence, and Iowa). All season I have felt the Auburn Tigers were a tad overrated. They do not have stellar guard play and in March that can be a fatal flaw. Enter the University of Southern California (USC). They have great play all-around at the guard position and this could be big trouble for Auburn. They can get the Tigers frontline into foul trouble, then attack the inside. I’m taking the Trojans to upset Auburn in the Round of 32. 

Possible Dark Horse: There was a time when whoever won the Big East was feared in the tournament. But after having many teams leave the conference, they have become an afterthought. However, regular-season conference champion Providence Friars are not a team anyone wants to play. They do not have any superstars or play flashy. What they do have is 5 players that average double-digit points and they find ways to win big games (they hold wins over Wisconsin, Texas Tech, and Connecticut). That is the biggest truth in March, survive and advance.

Best Game:  The possible second-round match-up between Iowa and Providence. You have two nearly identical teams. Iowa has the star power with Keegan Murray and sharpshooting from Jordan Bohannon. Where the Hawkeyes struggle is defensively and when you are playing a team like Providence that shares the ball well and anyone can score, that can hurt you. This will be a battle but Providence doing the little things well gives them the edge. 

Region Winner: The Kansas Jayhawks. I do not think they will have an issue being motivated in this region. I try to avoid going “chalk”, but this year I feel that the tournament was seeded mostly (ahem, Tennessee Volunteers as a 3 seed?) correctly. Kansas has been generally consistent this season and did not show signs of slowing down in the Big 12 conference tournament. Their veteran leadership and being battle-tested will pay dividends playing in arguably the toughest region. 

My Midwest Region picks. I have Kansas marching on to the Final Four. Graphic Courtesy: Yahoo Sports

Join me here tomorrow as I make my Final Four and National Champion picks.